The Greek Courier
During his recent rally in Georgia, Trump claimed, “I’ve won affordability,” promoted his achievements, and countered criticisms of his administration over rising costs. With the help of FactCheck.org, we examined Trump's economic claims and produced a reality check that we believe is worth your attention.
Claims of Record Economic Growth
Trump's assertion that “economic growth is exploding” under his leadership has been met with skepticism. While the economy did show growth in late 2025, with quarterly rates of 3.8% and 4.4% in the second and third quarters, respectively, these figures do not represent unprecedented growth. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the highest quarterly growth on record was 34.9% in 2020 during the economic recovery post-COVID. Historically, annual growth averages around 2.75%.
Job Creation: Numbers Without Context
In terms of job creation, Trump claims that the U.S. is experiencing the highest employment figures in history. While this is technically accurate, it is important to consider the context of a growing population. As of January 2026, the employment-to-population ratio has declined slightly, indicating that while more individuals are employed, the growth rate of jobs is not keeping pace with population growth. Job growth during Trump's second term has also lagged compared to the final year of Biden’s presidency. Between January 2025 and January 2026, under Trump, the gain of 359,000 jobs or 0.2% was lower than Biden’s final year, with a gain of 1.2 million jobs or 0.8.%.
Inflation and Affordability Issues
This is where things get irky. Trump has repeatedly declared that inflation has been curtailed under his administration, asserting, “We don’t have it anymore.” However, while the inflation rate decreased from a high of 9.1% in June 2022 to about 2.4% by January 2026 - and that was not due to his economic policies during 2025- this still exceeds the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Funny thing, Trump falsely claimed to have inherited the worst inflation in history, when in fact the most severe inflation rates occurred in the aftermath of World War I. Even worse, despite his crowing about lowered prices, many essential costs have remained high or even risen. For example, food prices overall increased by about 2.2% year over year, and average energy costs, while down slightly overall, particularly for gasoline, are not reflective of the prices he claims, which were misleadingly cited as averaging $1.99 a gallon.
Misleading Statements on Economic Indicators
On the topic of the federal budget deficit, Trump has exaggerated his success with tariffs, claiming a reduction of 27% in a single year. This figure, however, derives from miscalculating cumulative deficits rather than comparing fiscal years accurately, where the deficit for FY 2025 was approximately $1.78 trillion, only a minor decrease from the previous year.
Additionally, his claim of slashing the trade deficit by 77% is based on a misleading month-to-month comparison rather than long-term trends. Economists emphasize the importance of context, pointing out that the trade deficit remains historically large, ranking among the highest recorded.
Manufacturing and Real Wages
Trump frequently asserts that manufacturing construction is up 41% under his second term, a statement that falls flat when examining actual construction data showing declines instead. The apparent increase references a flawed methodology that overlooks historical highs achieved prior under other administrations.
Regarding real wages, Trump has touted gains of $1,300 since he assumed office. Although real wages have indeed risen by 1.9% in the past year, attributing this solely to his policies neglects the broader economic context that led to wage fluctuations both prior and during his presidency.
The stock market
Although the stock market has fared well under Trump, it’s misleading to suggest that it “rebounded strongly” after Biden. The stock market performed well in Biden’s final two years in office — with the S&P 500 rising over 20% each of those years — better than the 13% gain Trump saw in his first year. Specifically,” the S&P 500 grew by nearly 58% over the entirety of Biden’s four years. The stock market has been on a good long-term run, with the S&P rising nearly 68% during Trump’s first four years in office and by 166% during the eight years under President Barack Obama before that.
A populist's reality is unreal
President Trump’s rhetoric surrounding economic recovery and affordability suggests a narrative of triumph over adversity. However, a detailed fact check reveals a landscape marked by significant complexities and ongoing challenges. As he prepares to address the nation, it is clear that while there may be indicators of progress, many of the claims regarding record-breaking growth and affordability remain exaggerated or misleading. Economic realities, coupled with persistent inflation and uneven job growth, paint a picture that is more nuanced than Trump's simplified assertions. The stakes are high for American families, and clarity is essential as both economic policies and their implications resonate through the 2026 election cycle.
No comments:
Post a Comment