In a game of chess you should never leave your guard down

by John Damellos

While the whole world was hanging on Mueller's lips, waiting for his verdict on Donald Trump, Russia sent troops and military equipment to Venezuela. Under cover of the Great Divide that blankets the Land of Confusion south of our border, a pair of Russian military planes flew casually and landed in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas Saturday, carrying 100 troops and several tons of equipment. Now, I know this is not a new Cuban Missile crisis yet, but I would not be surprised if Putin attempts to do in Venezuela what he so skillfully achieved in Syria and Turkey some time ago: turn the game around and check mate his opponents. There is only one tiny problem. This is the Western Hemisphere, not the Middle East. And Russia wants to put a firm foothold in its largest oil reserve. 

Nonetheless, Washington's reaction was late again revealing a reccuring symptom: miscalculation. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called the Russian foreign minister on Monday, two days after the planes had landed in Caracas, to tell him the United States won’t “stand idly by” as Russia sends military forces to Venezuela. 

Today, an NSC operative consulting the White House accused "Maduro’s enablers in Moscow and Havana for pushing continued escalation with the end-goal of crushing the opposition once-and-for-all.” 

And finally, a number of military experts admitted that they had misdudged Vladimir Putin’s interest in the Western Hemisphere’s largest oil reserve. No kidding! Well, since 2013, the signs were there. 

As America's Quarterly reveals, "in late 2013, Igor Sechin, the CEO of Russia’s state oil company Rosneft and second in command in the Kremlin, announced plans to acquire Lukoil’s assets in Junin 6, a lucrative oil block in the Orinoco Belt, and invest $13 billion in Venezuelan oil and gas assets over the following 5 years. In early 2016, Rosneft announced a further investment of $500 million in Petro Monagas, in the Orinoco Basin, and became a partner with Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA for offshore gas drilling. That same year, Rosneft acquired a 49.9 percent interest in the Venezuelan oil distribution company Citgo for a further $1.5 billion, although U.S. pressure led it to swap its interests for oilfield stakes and a fuel supply deal."

What do the Russians offer to Maduro? 

• They have kept Maduro and Venezuela’s state-run oil company afloat with loans, guaranteed by oil and gas shipments. 
• They pay goverment workers and military bills every month and they restructured PDVSA's bond when it was unable to pay Rosneft’s credit lines. 
• They even offered to revamp an older project to construct the largest Kalashnikov factory outside Eastern Europe for the annual production of 25,000 AK-103 assault rifles and 50 million rounds of ammunition... 

and they are not going to back down unless... as a Russian panelist put it at a gathering of Russian and Venezuelan scholars at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington a few days ago: "the U.S. and European governments stop interfering in Ukraine". 

I am not so sure. 

Because. even if the 17 billion dollars turn out to be a bad investment for Sechin, Venezuela remains the only country left for Putin to control in Latin America, now that Cuba has distanced itself from Moscow. 

In fact, it can be a solid geopolitical leverage in any negotiations with the West over the fate of many hot spots on the planet, not only Ukraine.