By Yiannis Damellos and Mars Strangelove Jr.
Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, NPR
October 12, 2026
Trump extended a major economic lifeline to Moscow, and in return he acquired diesel that he might not need. Nobody promised him an energy ceasefire, but days later, he nevertheless announced one that neither side publicly confirmed— as a result, Russia not only was freed from sanctions, but it also continued its attacks on Ukraine.
Donald Trump has built much of his political identity around his ability to make deals. His latest attempt to reach an understanding with Vladimir Putin, however, raises a basic question: did the American president secure meaningful Russian commitments before making concessions, or did he expect concessions to persuade Putin to cooperate afterward? The sequence of events offers a revealing case study in the difference between announcing a diplomatic breakthrough and actually achieving one.