How Russia Emerged as an Early Winner of the Iran War

Rebecca Schneid
Sat, March 7, 2026 

The war in Iran has killed hundreds of civilians, displaced hundreds of thousands more, sent global oil prices skyrocketing, created a political crisis for President Donald Trump and shaken the stability of the Gulf. But for one nation at least, the chaos has created opportunity. Russia has emerged from the first week of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran as an early winner, seemingly able to profit from the secondary economic and geopolitical effects of the war while others bear the costs.

Russia is one of the few nations that has maintained a friendly relationship with Tehran. Moscow condemned the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran on February 28, calling it a “pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent U.N. member state,” in a statement from Russia's Foreign Affairs Ministry posted to Telegram. Vladimir Putin similarly criticized the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a “cynical murder.”

Read More: Wars Like Ukraine and Iran Are Pushing Countries To Rethink How They Get Their Energy

But while it may stand to lose a powerful ally in the region, Moscow may also benefit in the short term, analysts say.

“What we’re seeing now was not hard to predict,” says Robert Person, nonresident Senior Fellow with the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), a nonpartisan think tank based in Philadelphia.

“Putin and his advisors have likely determined that war in Iran serves Russia’s interests in the short term: higher energy prices, global distraction from a Ukraine war that Putin is not ready to settle, and America at risk of entrapment in another Middle Eastern quagmire,” Person says.

“We don’t know the degree to which any of this influenced the Trump Administration’s decision-making, but I suspect they were of secondary consideration, if at all,” he adds.

Here are the ways in which Russia is benefiting from the Iran war.

U.S. lifts restrictions on Russian oil

Russia has been under heavy sanctions from the U.S. and other allies since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including export controls, asset blockings, an oil price cap, and other restrictive economic pressures aimed at impeding its ability to fund its war.

President Donald Trump imposed an additional 25% import tariff on India over its import of Russian oil in August, arguing that its continued purchase undermined the sanctions regime designed to pressure Putin to negotiate over the Ukraine war.

But in response to rising gas prices in the U.S., Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week issued a 30-day waiver on the tariff and is considering further lifting of sanctions.

“Yesterday, the Treasury agreed to let our allies in India start buying Russian oil that was already on the water,” Bessent told Fox Business on Friday. “We may sanction other Russian oil.”

In an X post Thursday, Bessent added that the “deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea.”

Despite this, Russian leadership claims that there is “a significant increase in demand” for Russian energy products, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, “in connection with the war in Iran.”

Rising oil prices

A combination of heavy sanctions and low oil prices had given Russia’s energy industry a poor outlook just a little over a week ago.

Oil and gas revenues fell from 45% of Russia's federal budget in 2021 to around 20% in 2025, as sanctions imposed by the international community aimed at limiting Moscow’s ability to wage war in Ukraine took effect.

Now, due to the crunch on global oil supplies caused by the Iran war, oil prices have spiked and Russia is one of the few oil-producing nations that stands ready to fully benefit from it.

It was forced to sell its oil at a discount of $10-$13 a barrel before the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, now it is selling at a premium of $4-$5, according to Reuters.

The combination of higher prices and the disruption to Gulf countries’ ability to supply markets in Asia could provide a windfall to Moscow, just a year after its oil and gas revenue dropped to its lowest levels since 2020.
Ukraine’s Patriots

One knock-on effect of the Iran war is that it may directly impact Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian missiles, delivering a boost to Moscow.

Ukraine was already facing a shortage of U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems, the expensive $4 million-a-piece munitions it uses to shoot down ballistic missiles and drones. Now the U.S. is running through those same missiles to defend against a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones that are targeting U.S. bases and Washington’s allies in the Middle East.

European Union Defense and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said Friday that the outlook for Ukraine was “critical,” and said the E.U. would need to “develop missile production in a very urgent and very rapid way.”

"Americans will not be able to provide enough of those missiles for the Gulf countries, for their own army, and also for Ukraine," Kubilius said.

Ukraine's vulnerability to aerial attacks was underscored overnight on Saturday as Russia launched a barrage of at least 450 drones and 19 missiles in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, according to Ukrainian officials, killing at least 10 people.

An analysis by Agence France-Presse found that Russia fired more missiles in overnight strikes in February than in any month since the beginning of 2023. The agency found that Russia launched 288 missiles at Ukraine in February, an increase of about 113% compared to 135 missiles in January.

At the same time as his country is struggling to defend itself, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country would assist the Gulf in taking down Iranian drones by providing some of its much cheaper, homegrown drone-interception technology.

“We received a request from the United States for specific support in protection,” against Iran’s drone systems, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday on X. Ukrainian advisers and systems would shortly be on their way to the Persian Gulf region, Zelensky said, because “Ukraine helps partners who help ensure our security.”

Russia has used Iranian-made Shahed drones to devastating effect against Ukraine over the last few years. Mostly out of necessity, Ukraine developed cheap interceptor drones known as the Sting system, which are operated by pilots who can guide them to crash into Shahed drones, forcing them to explode.

‘Degrading America’s projection of power’

Several news outlets, including the Washington Post and the Associated Press, have reported that Russia has shared targeting intelligence on the U.S. military with Iran and is directing Iran on what to do with the information.

The Post, citing officials familiar with intelligence on the matter, said the intelligence included the locations of American warships, aircraft and other military assets.

White House officials have not denied that Russia is providing intelligence to Iran, but they have downplayed the country’s influence and its ability to harm military operations.

When asked by CBS News about the reports and how Russian information has aided Iran in targeting U.S. bases across the Middle East, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said: “No one’s putting us in danger”.

“We mitigate it as we need to,” the Pentagon chief continued. “Our commanders factor all of this, but the only ones that need to be worried right now are Iranians that think they’re going to live.”

Earlier this week, President Donald Trump snapped at Fox News reporter Peter Doocy when he asked about Russia’s reported role in helping Iran.

“I have a lot of respect for you, you’ve always been very nice to me,” Trump told Doocy. “What a stupid question that is to be asking at this time. We’re talking about something else.”

“Recent reports that Russia has provided Iran with intelligence used to target American forces in the region are consistent with the latter effort: anything to complicate or degrade America’s projection of power shifts the relative geopolitical balance in Moscow’s favor,” Person says.

A boost for Moscow in the shadow of Iran war: US allows India to buy Russian oil for a month

DAVID McHUGH

Updated Fri, March 6, 2026


FILE - Fishermen work in front of oil tankers south of the Strait of Hormuz Jan. 19, 2012, offshore the town of Ras Al Khaimah in United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The U.S. Treasury Department's decision to allow India to buy Russian oil for 30 days underscores a boost for Moscow's fortunes against the backdrop of the Iran war as Russia’s oil exports help Kremlin pay for its own war on Ukraine.

The Treasury Department this week said India can keep buying crude oil and petroleum products from Russia for a month, until April 4.

That measure is aimed at helping ease upward pressure on oil prices that affect gasoline costs for U.S. consumers. But it also underlines how the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is tightening the markets for oil and gas — including Russia's crude.

A complex mix of oil, tariffs — and 2 wars

China and India became Russia’s biggest customers for oil after Moscow's full-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 provoked a boycott by the European Union, formerly the biggest importer from Russia.

U.S. President Donald Trump had slapped 25% tariffs on India for continuing to purchase Russian oil. Indian oil imports from Russia diminished after Trump dropped the tariff Feb. 6 in return for what he said was a promise to stop buying Russian oil.

On Friday, international benchmark Brent crude rose to $89 per barrel, up from just under $73 a week ago, on the eve of the new war in the Middle East. Russia’s Urals blend export hit $70, up from below $40 as recently as December.

The widening war in Iran and the risk of Iranian drone or missile attacks has shut down almost all tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the only sea passage out of Persian Gulf and the conduit for 20% of the world economy’s oil needs.

Tankers traveling through the strait, which is bordered in the north by Iran, carry oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Iran. Now nothing is going through.

Soaring oil prices after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint have meant at least a temporary reversal of fortune for Russia’s fossil fuel revenues.

That revenue had dwindled due to previously weak global prices and tightening Western sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers with obscure ownership used to evade a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven democracies, as well as sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.

A welcome waiver

In granting a month's reprieve to India, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 30-day period would “not provide significant financial benefit” to the Russian government as it only applied to Russian oil stranded on tankers after no customer could be found.

Analysts estimated that could be some 125 million barrels of crude.

“This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage,” Bessent said on X.

Russian oil still trades at a considerable discount to international benchmark Brent. However, Russian crude is now well above the benchmark of $59 per barrel that was assumed in the Russian Finance Ministry’s budget plan for 2026.

Oil and gas tax revenues can amount to 20% to 30% of the Russian federal budget. Tax is based on the price of oil once Russian producers have covered their costs of around $15 per barrel, so a fall in the price can substantially reduce revenue to the government.

Additionally, the halt in production of ship-borne liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by major supplier Qatar — suspended after an Iranian drone strike on Qatar’s largest LNG plant early on in the Iran war — will sharply increase global competition for available cargoes, including those from Russia.

Prices for future delivery of natural gas have soared in Europe, raising questions about the EU's plans to halt its remaining imports of Russian gas by 2027.

An unpredictable future

Much depends on how long the war with Iran lasts. In the first week, the effects of the conflict that began with the United States and Israel’s Feb. 28 strikes on Iran are widening and now encompass more than a dozen countries.

Oil market analysts say that if it ends within a week or two, oil prices could quickly fall to prewar levels around $65 per barrel and Russia would see little benefit.

However, a longer conflict — one that leaves long-term damage to oil fields, pipelines and terminals in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait, and sends oil prices over $100 per barrel — could deliver a lasting windfall to Russia.

Russia had seen state oil and gas revenue fall to a four-year low of 393 billion rubles ($5 billion) in January and the budget shortfall of 1.7 trillion rubles ($21.8 billion) for that month was the biggest on record, according to Finance Ministry figures.

Economic growth has stagnated as massive military spending has leveled off. As oil and gas revenues to the state budget fell, President Vladimir Putin has resorted to tax increases and increased borrowing from compliant domestic banks to keep state finances on an even keel in the fifth year of the war.

Asked about the waiver, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted the increased demand on Russian oil amid the Mideast war and said that “India and China are guided by their national interests, and we do the same.”

“We continue our cooperation, including the energy field and energy trade, with India and China,” Peskov said.

“We note a significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources in connection with the Iran war," he added. "Russia has been a reliable supplier of oil and gas. It can guarantee all contracted supplies.”