Source: Reuters, NBC News
Venezuela slipped further into chaos today, as opposition leader Juan Guaido called again his supporters to rise against President Nicolas Maduro and overthrow him. But his renewed attempt to topple Maduro failed again, as the military, which is in control of the country, dismissed his claims and stood by its president. At the end of the day, the only positive outcome for the leader of the opposition was the escape of activist Leopoldo López from house arrest; the Venezuelan government was quick to accuse the US of orchestrating it, as they are convinced that he is to be used as a pole to unite more dissidents against Maduro. Now, both sides are involved in a war of attrition with Guaido provoking the regime on a daily basis and Maduro playing cool to avoid any bloodshed, that would weaken his position and present him as a ruthless dictator in the eyes of the Western world.
Looking back at today's events, Guaidó took to the streets with a small contingent of heavily armed troops and some armored vehicles and released a three-minute video filmed near a Caracas air base, in which he called on civilians and others in the armed forces to join a final push to topple Maduro. Nobody knows what he hoped to achieve with just a few military men and an unarmed crowd throwing rocks against armored vehicles, but, Maduro's military commanders immediately dismissed his claims in social media posts and crashed their opponents with no remorse.
After several hours of unrest, Venezuela's U.N. ambassador announced that President Nicolas Maduro had "defeated" opposition leader Juan Guaidó and his supporters, and that "the country was again in a situation of perfect normality." Later on, Venezuela's Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza said that the U.S. likely paid a guard to allow opposition activist Leopoldo López escape house arrest. Lopez, a high-profile opposition politician, and his family found shelter at the Chilean Diplomatic Mission Residency in Caracas.
In Washington, top U.S. officials, including Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, were quick to offer their support for Guaidó's bid to oust Maduro, but Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Tuesday accused the opposition in Venezuela of resorting to violence in what it said was "a brazen attempt to draw the country's armed forces into clashes."
Analysis
What the West does not comprehend is that Moscow has had as much experience dealing with characters like Maduro, as Washington has had training clowns like Guaido. Obviously, the Russians know how to handle provocations and have warned Maduro to refrain from atrocities; and because their financial stakes in Venezuela are huge, they are committed to playing a cat and mouse game with the opposition and with the Americans as well. Accordingly, only a few weeks ago, when Guaido's motorcade had entered a Bolivarian neighborhood in Caracas in a renewed attempt to provoke the crowd's violent reaction, the Russians asked the Venezuelan army to protect the motorcade against any attempt of attack by Maduro's followers.
Beware of the S-300
At the same time, Moscow is beefing up its military presence. According to defense experts in the region and satellite imagery obtained by the Israeli company Image Sat, at least four mobile batteries of S-300 missiles have been installed in different parts of Venezuela over recent months to protect key military bases and government centers. Furthermore, "analysts believe that the Russian military contingent, which reportedly arrived in late March, included air defense specialists with the necessary skills to ensure the decade-old missiles can be kept operational in spite of Venezuela's crumbling infrastructure and frequent power failures." According to Nigel Inkster, an international security expert with London's International Institute for Strategic Studies, "the S-300 is reckoned to be one of the best air defense missiles around and Russian motivation is probably twofold: to pose a challenge to the U.S. in its own backyard and to raise the costs to the U.S. of any invasion of Venezuela".
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