Erdogan's Pretzel Logic

John Damellos

The time has come for Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan to decide whether he is going to proceed with the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system or not. The Americans are getting restless and asked the Turks to postpone their installation for a year. The Russian ambassador in Ankara called the deal a fact and added that it has been completed. And the Kremlin insisted that the Turks have not requested any postponement. Had there been a change in Erdogan's mind, we would have known already; because last night he talked to Vladimir Putin, at the phone. Instead, the grand Sultan got something out of his negotiations with the Russian President that, apparently, values more than Turkey's relationship with NATO. If the Turkish newspapers and analysts are not disseminating "fake news", then Vladimir Putin agreed to hand over Idlib to the Turks, with Assad's blessings, and in return to keep his precious strategic deal with Turkey, that aims at the dissolution of NATO's southern wing.

 

Since the "failed 2016 coup" that he blamed on the Americans, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has become short of paranoid with sustaining his power; as the Guardian's Simon Tisdall put it quite elegantly last summer, Erdogan has "systemically emasculated rival power bases and independent media, locking up pro-Kurdish lawmakers and journalists and sacking tens of thousands of civil servants, academics, military, police, and judges on specious grounds of national security". But even before that, he had practically sent to retirement old comrades such as Abdullah Gül and Ahmet Davutoğlu, formerly president and prime minister respectively, making sure that nobody within the AKP could rival him in the coming elections. Yet, last month and after turning Turkey’s local elections into a referendum on his personal leadership, he failed. The results showed that his Justice and Development Party (AKP) retreated nationally and lost control of seven of Turkey’s 12 main cities, not counting Istanbul. What a harsh and cruel rejection of his vision that was...

 

Now, the stakes are even higher. His twisted reasoning must help him decide whether to buy the one and only weapon system that has been created to destroy American F-35s while he is just 2 months away from President Trump's official visit to Turkey. He has to weigh the pros and cons and consider any possible consequences to him and Turkey in relation to both global adversaries, not only the US. Also, he must protect the Turkish economy and the Turkish Lira, which by definition, is a wild card situation beyond his control. Because after the failed coup, everything he has tried in this area has failed. His efforts to block rising interest rates failed; his prestige infrastructure spending and the consequent rise of debt propelled Turkey into recession, hurting the national currency, aggravating inflation, and rising unemployment as well. Food prices have rocketed, some areas report shortages of household staples, and the only good news is that he does not face a national election until 2023. 

To sum up, Erdogan's decision-making time is up. If he postpones the installation of S-400, President Trump's visit will be a breeze. But if he is not, then as a Russian journalist put it: "Without firing a single shot, deploying a single tank or using a single internet troll, Moscow can soon destroy the unity of NATO by removing a key country from its military network. What’s more, Russia will receive $2.5 billion for its efforts and not a single new sanction. This is a victory that was unimaginable only a few years ago."