Bild: New German elections poll shows a 0.5% percent margin can ensure the formation of a government

Less than 24 hours before polls open in Germany, the political landscape remains extremely fluid.

Based on the latest polls, from Bild newspaper, the Christian Democrats are below the psychological threshold of 30%, albeit marginally. This in itself makes it difficult to form a coalition with a single party, either with outgoing Chancellor Scholz's Social Democrats or with the Greens.

According to INSA the CDU/CSU is at 29.5%, which is about 5 percentage points above its 2021 election result. The clear loser of the election will therefore be the SPD led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz since only 15% say they will vote for the Social Democrats, which would be a loss of more than 10 percentage points compared to 2021.

At the same time, the far-right AfD party is on the verge of a dark triumph, with INSA placing it at 21 percent, which, if confirmed at the ballot box, would be more than double from four years ago when it grabbed 10.3 percent of the popular vote.

The surprise, according to the poll, could come from the Left side of the political spectrum, namely Die Linke. In the last poll, it received 7.5% – about three points more than in 2021. INSA chief Hermann Binkert told Bild: "The party of the left is the big winner of the election campaign. It has clearly surpassed the 5% barrier." According to the INSA survey, the Greens garner just 12.5%, down from 2021 when their share was 14.8%.

Election night could be dramatic for the FDP and BSW parties– the composition of Germany's new federal government could depend on their performance – because both parties are worried about whether they will be able to overcome the 5% threshold for entering parliament. Thus, INSA recorded BSW at exactly 5%, and FDP at 4.5%. That means the Liberals are likely to plummet 6.5 points down from 11.5% in 2021, but still have a chance of entering Germany's parliament — and even help form a coalition government.

Post-election scene in Germany is a puzzle

If only five parties enter Germany's 630-seat parliament (CDU, SPD, AfD, Greens, Left), that will be enough for a black-and-red two-party alliance. If Zara Wagenknecht's party, the BSW, joins, the situation will become more difficult. In this case, the CDU/CSU will have to rely on the SPD and the Greens for a majority, because all parties have ruled out a coalition with the AfD.

The head of INSA explained what will happen in case the FDP fails to enter the German parliament, stressing: "9.5% of the vote goes to parties that fail to pass the 5% threshold. A parliamentary majority is possible with only 45.5%. The CDU/CSU coalitions with the SPD (together 44.5%) or the Greens (together 42%) fail to achieve parliamentary majorities.

But if the FDP manages to get into the German parliament, then there will probably be a majority for a three-party coalition (CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP). That means the 0.5 percent margin can ultimately ensure the next federal government.