Liberals led by Mark Carney would defeat Conservatives: Pallas poll

7 February 2025

A Pallas poll conducted on February 6 — with a margin of error of +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level — shows that if an election were held today, the Liberals led by Mark Carney would defeat the Conservatives. With Carney as leader, the Liberals would get 39%, and the Conservatives 38%. The NDP would get 9%, while the Bloc would get 7%.This would likely be a Liberal minority but with fewer NDP seats. While the Bloc would still hold its own against Carney, he would increase Liberal support in Quebec.

Pallas tested other Liberal leadership candidates, and Carney is the only leader who would hypothetically give the Liberals the lead.

Chrystia Freeland would be 10 points behind Poilievre, and Karina Gould would be 20 points behind.

However, when Pallas looks at all voters including the undecided, the Conservative vote stays strong at 37-39% across all hypothetical ballot scenarios, including Carney.

Any change in the Liberal vote from leader to leader moves back and forth from Liberal to undecided, NDP, Green, and Bloc voters.

This means there is a good chance that the Conservative bleeding that has occurred until now will likely stop once a new Liberal leader is elected, says Pallas.

“Why is Carney leading? It might simply be that Canadians think that a banker is best suited to handle the economic issues of the day, and on first blush, Carney ticks a lot of those boxes,” according to Pallas.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 40% (-2% since Pallas last polled in January), and the Liberals have 34% (+6%). The NDP has 12% (-6%), while the Bloc Quebecois has 7% (-2%). The Greens have 2% (-2%).