Saturday, February 22, 2025

Ukraine Between the American Scylla and the Russian Charybdis


Trump is blackmailing Ukraine with tougher conditions without even giving security guarantees

The Greek Courier

Ukraine is been left all alone to fight American greed and Russian vengeance. Since Donald Trump entered the world scene, Ukrainians feel they already lost the war and their previously greatest allies have abandoned them for their greatest foes. Just as we speak several media report that the most recent minerals agreement draft between Ukraine and the United States not only does not contain security guarantees but has become even greedier than before.

Just the day before, Trump and his National Security Advisor Waltz had stated that a deal was close to being concluded and that President Volodymyr Zelensky should sign it as soon as possible. 

Today, however, Sky News cited new sources that revealed Zelensky is still not ready to sign, and the Ukrainian side is trying to resolve the disputed issues. Apparently, there are several problematic issues, and the Ukrainian president is not ready to accept the current form of the draft. It also does not reflect the partnership in the agreement and contains only unilateral obligations of Ukraine.

Confusion will bring my Epitaph

There is also a lot of confusion. According to The Wall Street Journal, the negotiations are approaching the final stage and the agreement could allegedly be signed as early as today, February 22. It was reported that the process was accelerated by the visit of US Special Representative Keith Kellogg to Kyiv.

However, according to pro-Trump Fox News journalist Nana Sajaya, the Ukrainian side has only submitted new counterproposals to the United States and Kellogg is taking them to the White House. According to her, no specific timeframe for further steps has been determined yet. And if an agreement is reached, the document will be signed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga.

Bloomberg's sources confirm that negotiators need more time. Apparently, Kyiv would like the agreement to be signed in the presence of Trump and Zelensky. At the meeting with Kellogg, the latter insisted on meeting with the US president before Russian dictator Vladimir Putin met with him.

Leaks and Leverage

Reuter just reported that Zelensky rejected Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's initial offer, while US officials practically blackmailed to cut off Ukraine's access to the Starlink satellite Internet system, which, in particular, provides communications for the military on the front line. The Americans threatened with "inevitable disconnection of the service" if Kyiv did not agree to a deal on mineral resources.

Funny thing, in all American blackmails Elon Musk is involved. Maybe that is because the Americans specifically want all the lithium found in Ukraine for Musk's Tesla batteries. Just saying now...

Trump is greedier than last week

Last week, Zelensky rejected Trump's initial blackmail for a minerals deal regarding a 50% share of the sale of licenses and other future revenues from the extraction of critical minerals such as graphite, uranium, titanium, and lithium. This option also covered revenues from oil, gas, and ports, however, it did not offer specific security guarantees in return, and the agreement in that form would in principle violate Ukrainian laws. Since then, Trump has called Zelensky a dictator -look who's talking- while Kyiv claimed that it had made "mutually beneficial" changes, after which Washington sent an allegedly "improved" version.

But the New York Times insisted that the revised agreement sets even stricter requirements than before. At the same time, it does not provide any security guarantees in return. The terms of the new offer require Ukraine to give up half of its revenues from natural resources, including minerals, gas, and oil, as well as revenues from ports and other infrastructure. Four NYT sources confirmed that these demands remained unchanged.

Kyiv had insisted on a partnership as a way to persuade Trump to provide additional support for its military efforts and guarantees against potential future Russian aggression. But the new document does neither. The last draft says that income will be directed to a fund in which the United States has a 100% financial stake. And that Ukraine should make contributions to this fund until it reaches $500 billion which amounts to twice the size of the pre-war Ukrainian economy and was not mentioned in the previous version.

Poor Ukrainians believe that the United States may reinvest part of the proceeds in Ukraine's post-war recovery. In particular, by investing in the development of subsoil and infrastructure. There are no guarantees about this and knowing Trump, they should have that in writing and pray that he keeps his word, which he doesn't have anyway.

The new draft also includes provisions on revenues from the territories occupied by Russia in case of their liberation. In this case, the share of revenues from resources from these territories will be 66%. Thus, Ukraine and the United States will contribute in a ratio of 2:1, with the Ukrainian side contributing 2/3 and the US side contributing a third, which it has already provided in the form of military aid. So, no guarantees whatsoever. 

Also, one of the few changes was the removal of the clause on the transfer of the agreement to the jurisdiction of the US court. Previously, it had caused concern in Kyiv, as it could weaken Ukraine's legal position in controversial issues. The Trump administration believes that the very presence of American economic interests in Ukraine is a guarantee of security for Kyiv. But the question remains: What happens when Trump and his minions are not in government anymore? What if Russia attacks again? 

You can't win with a losing hand

Realistically, Kyiv is proposing to revise the size of the fund and stipulate that the money in the fund be used exclusively for investments in Ukraine. While some are inclined to believe that an agreement will have to be concluded in this form to unblock work on a peaceful settlement, that does not mean that the other side feels this way.

In conclusion, CNN writes that the draft agreement "is not one that President Zelenskyy would accept."

But, Ukrainian officials, being stuck between Scylla and Charybdis have been cautious about commenting on the agreement with the United States. Earlier this week, after meeting with Kellogg, Prime Minister Shmyhal said that the economy is running on a war base and that Ukrainians are ready to work with Trump "to achieve pragmatic and mutually beneficial results for both countries.

Two days ago Zelensky called the talks with Kellogg encouraging and added that the better the details of the agreements are, the better the result. Today, things have changed.

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