Edited/Curated by Yiannis Damellos
March 24, 2025 – As Carney, Singh, and Poilievre travel across the country to convey their political message to Canadian voters, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Liberals’ momentum has boosted the party to an eight-point lead (46% to 38%) over the Conservatives. In fact, it is the collapse of the NDP that facilitates the Libs' supremacy as half of their 2021 voters plan on voting for the Liberals if the election were today.
Also, the Liberals have experienced a resurgence in popularity in Quebec, with nearly half (49%) of Quebecers indicating their intention to vote Liberal. This support is particularly strong in Montreal, where it reaches two-thirds (64%) of the sample. However, this boost for the Liberals has negatively impacted the Bloc Québécois, whose support has almost halved since December, dropping from 11% to 6%. Additionally, they are facing a decline in support from voters who backed them in 2021, with 23% now planning to vote Liberal.
The transition from the disfavored Justin Trudeau to the much more popular Mark Carney has undoubtedly contributed significantly to the Liberals' resurgence from their low support levels. Nearly half (46%) of Canadians report an improved opinion of Carney in recent weeks, with a majority (54%) viewing him positively. Notably, he is the only national party leader with a net positive rating on both of these measures.
Voter loyalty
Yet, despite Carney's Red Rollercoaster, the Conservatives continue to hold an advantage in voter commitment. Three-quarters (72%) of those who would support Pierre Poilievre’s party say they are firmly committed to that choice, compared to half (51%) of Liberal voters who say the same. The data suggests that, although support for the Conservatives has declined from its peak reached in December, the party maintains a strong base of support. In contrast, Liberal support may currently be at a peak, but its sustainability relies on maintaining that momentum.
More Key Findings
Three-quarters (72%) of Canadians consider this election to be "way more important" than the one in 2021. While it is common for Canadians to perceive the current election as more significant than its predecessor, the level of certainty this time is unprecedented and the Trump threats against Canadian sovereignty may be the reason. In 2021, only 35% deemed that year's election "way more important" than 2019's, and in 2019, 43% believed that the election was "way more important" than 2015's.
Vote Intention
As the campaign officially commences, Carney and the Liberals hold a growing lead over the rival Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre. Currently, the Liberals enjoy a margin of eight points, with 46% of vote intention compared to the Conservatives' 38%.
The Liberals’ ascent has occurred simultaneously with the decline of the NDP under Jagmeet Singh, which has seen their support plummet from 21% in December to just 7% now. Additionally, support for the Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet, has diminished as the Liberals gain traction, falling nearly by half since December to 6%.
Three big Liberal cities
Also, the Liberals have substantially increased their support in Canada’s three largest cities since December. In Metro Vancouver, for example, their vote intention has surged from 27% to 50%. In downtown Toronto, it has grown from 27% to 56%, while in the outer ring, it has climbed from 25% to 52%. In Montreal, Liberal vote intention has risen from one-third (34%) in December to 64%.
By age and gender
The Liberals under Carney have built a broad base of support that crosses age and gender lines. At least two-in-five of every demographic say they would vote Liberal if the election were today, including three-in-five (58%) of women older than 54. The CPC perform best among men older than 34, a plurality of whom say they support Poilievre’s party.
The NDP factor
The NDP’s bus is more than leaking oil – the engine might have fallen out. While part of the story of the Liberals’ rise has been estranged 2021 voters returning to the party after the departure of Trudeau – in December just two-in-five (41%) said they were intending to repeat their vote for the Liberals – it has also been fueled by the flight of 2021 NDP supporters. Just one-third (35%) of 2021 NDP voters say they will vote for the party again this election, while half (50%) say they intend to support the Liberals.
The Carney Liberals have also pulled a small fraction of 2021 Conservative voters – one-in-eight (12%) – putting a dent in the Conservative vote retention, which had stood at 89 per cent in December.
Further, the Liberals’ current success in Quebec is partially driven by one-quarter (23%) of those who voted Bloc in 2021 saying they intend to vote for the incumbent Liberals in this election
Leadership and Momentum
The Liberal Party's electoral appeal has been bolstered by the relatively favorable perception of its leader compared to his counterparts. A majority (54%) of Canadians hold a positive view of Carney, while most have unfavorable opinions of Poilievre (59%) and Singh (58%). Notably, the standings of both Poilievre and Singh have not improved in recent months, as Canadians have expressed concerns over the country’s response to Trump and the decline in U.S. relations. In December, 55% viewed Poilievre negatively, and 58% had a negative opinion of Singh.
While Blanchet enjoys a positive net rating in Quebec, he is still outpaced by Carney, who is viewed favorably by three in five (61%) residents in the province.
Positive Momentum for Carney
Carney's popularity is definitively on the rise. Nearly half (46%) of Canadians report an improved opinion of him in recent weeks, including one in five (20%) previous Conservative voters, a majority (56%) of former NDP supporters, and half (47%) of those who voted for the Bloc in the last election.
When it comes to his main rival, Poilievre, Canadians are most likely to say their opinion of him has remained unchanged (50%), while only one in eight (13%) report an improvement. This latter group mainly consists of current CPC supporters (37% have improved opinions) or those who supported the party in 2021 (27%), with very few coming from past Liberal (4%), NDP (2%), or Bloc (5%) voters, who the CPC needs to regain support.
Top Issues
As the election campaign begins, the top five issues remain unchanged from three weeks ago, prior to Carney winning the Liberal leadership. Nonetheless, concerns regarding the cost of living and U.S. relations have both increased, primarily at the expense of healthcare, which has now become the third most prioritized issue. The cost of living and U.S. relations are inherently connected, as tariffs have raised prices on many goods.
The Conservatives are currently at a disadvantage compared to the Liberals when it comes to persuading Canadian voters that they are the best option to tackle these pressing issues. Carney is still viewed as the most capable leader for addressing Canadians’ top concerns and has actually widened his lead over Poilievre across the board. However, it is worth noting that on the most critical issue for Canadians—the cost of living—Carney's perceived advantage is the smallest relative to other areas.
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