Trump is a fool to believe he can befriend Moscow to "crush" Beijing

Opinion by Giorgos Kapopoulos

Article: Demarcation Message

Efsyn.gr

Translation: Yiannis Damellos

Even in the best possible version of the US rapprochement with Russia, the Kremlin is not going to downgrade its comprehensive rapprochement with China that has developed in the three years since the invasion of Ukraine. This message was conveyed by Moscow to Washington following the conclusion of the annual naval exercises involving Russia, China, and Iran, as well as the recent meeting in Beijing of the three countries' deputy foreign ministers.

The above was recorded shortly after Trump's letter to Khamenei, where the American threat of resorting to force was directly stated if Tehran did not meet Washington's demands.

The agenda for the talks in Beijing clearly included discussions about Tehran's nuclear program. However, Beijing's message carries a broader significance. Any attempts by Trump to befriend Putin cannot alter the strategic relationship between Moscow and Beijing, nor do they affect the support that both countries provide to Tehran.

● Russia seems to support an informal “superpower troika” with China and the US, as it ensures greater room for maneuver.

● If isolated in a twin relationship with China or the US, Russia is trapped in the role of a minor partner.

In other words, the tiresome obsession with the triangular balance sought by Nixon and Kissinger between the USSR, China, and the US is likely to not correspond to today’s reality. At that time, Beijing and Moscow had concluded a decade of strategic rivalry, the exploitation of which by Kissinger subsequently allowed Nixon to negotiate from a position of strength with Brezhnev. 

A similar scenario does not exist today, meaning that Trump cannot approach Moscow to subsequently “crush” Beijing. The Russia-China rapprochement cannot be threatened by a possible move by Trump to pull Moscow closer to the US. Let us take for example Trump’s willingness to support Russia’s return to the Group of 8 (G-8). It's pointless. Russia’s pivotal role in the BRICS plus Group has already nullified, by the Americans, the logic of its expulsion from the G-8 in 2014, due to the invasion of Ukraine.

From what it seems, the US thinks that it is facing Yeltsin’s Russia or Gorbachev’s decadent USSR.