Canadian Election: Liberals ahead in polls as election day nears

By Julia Wolfe
Published April 23, 2025 04:00 AM PDT

With less than two weeks until Canadians go to the polls on April 28, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, a Harvard-educated technocrat two months into his political career, has capitalized on his image as a steady hand at the tiller in an economic storm, drawing on his record as Canada's central banker during the 2008 financial crisis and England's central banker during Brexit.

His Liberal party has rebounded to a 5-point lead over the main opposition Conservative party led by Pierre Poilievre in polls aggregated by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, after trailing by 24 points in January.
Carney's blend of tough talk and bland competence is a deliberate strategy, six Liberal strategists and a person directly familiar with Carney's campaign told Reuters.
It has resonated with many Canadians. Carney's Liberal party is projected to win a majority in parliament, extending its decade-long hold on power.
Meanwhile, career politician Poilievre has struggled to adapt his campaign to Trump, six Conservative strategists and four independent analysts said.

Data as of April 21. Sample sizes for polls range from 953 to 4,009 and the margins of error range from 3.2 to 1.5.

Sources
Ipsos, EKOS Research, Angus Reid Institute, Nanos Research, CBC News

Additional reporting by
Anna Mehler Paperny, David Ljunggren and Wa Lone