Election 45: Liberal lead holds, while Liberal vote commitment intensifies

Liberal voters saying they’re “very committed” has risen from 46 to 62 per cent over past five weeks

April 7, 2025 – It was a chaotic week across the globe and in Canada as U.S. President Donald Trump announced universal tariffs on nearly every nation in the world. And while “uncertainty” seems to be the defining word of the year, certainty does appear to be growing among Liberal voters who have yet to definitively commit to their preferred choice in the ongoing federal election.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that while the Conservative Party continues to trail the Liberals in overall vote intent, it also continues to hold the advantage among committed voters. Approximately seven-in-10 CPC voters say they will not change their mind before they cast a ballot.

Herein, however, lies the importance of paying attention to both the surface story and the dynamic undercurrents of vote intention, as the Liberals are also making headway in closing the commitment gap. Three-in-five (62%) Liberal now voters say they are very committed, up from 46 per cent in early March.

Overall, 46 per cent of eligible Canadian voters say they will support their Liberal candidate, while 36 per cent say this of the CPC. The New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois are both supported by seven per cent currently.

Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s personal favourability rating continues to be a boon to the Liberals. More than half of Canadians (55%) view him positively, compared to 34 per cent for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The CPC leader is viewed unfavourably by 60 per cent of Canadians, while 38 per cent say the same of Carney.

More Key Findings:

The Liberal Party leads by 11 points over the CPC in British Columbia and 16 points in Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals lead the Bloc Québécois 39 per cent to 30 per cent, while the CPC are chosen by 22 per cent.

Choosing between Carney and Poilievre, 50 per cent say Carney would be the better prime minister, while 28 per cent say this of the Conservative leader. 13 per cent say neither would be a good prime minister.

INDEX

Part One: Vote intention

• By region
• By age and gender
• Liberal vote commitment continues to rise

Part Two: Leadership

• Momentum
• Favourability
• Carney viewed as best prime minister by half

Part One: Vote intention

U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” passed by without further bad news for Canada’s economy. As countries around the world learned about the “reciprocal tariffs” placed on them via placard, Canada was spared. However, the scope of the damage from previously enacted tariffs on cars, auto parts, aluminum and steel is perhaps only just becoming known as Stellantis paused production at its Windsor assembly plant in response. Canadian markets also weren’t spared the global market selloff ignited by the Liberation Day tariffs.

Through the international financial turmoil, Canadian politicians continued to hit the hustings. This week, the Liberals promised CBC funding boosts, that supply management won’t be affected by trade talks with the U.S., and a new grant for skilled trades. The Conservatives campaigned on eliminating the federal sales tax from Canadian-made vehicles, a new law and stricter bail conditions for those accused of intimate partner violence, increased funding for recovery treatment and a measure to address red tape.

Despite another full week of election machinations to process, the electorate is more or less unmoved compared to last week. More than two-in-five (46%) Canadians indicate they’d vote Liberal in this election, while 36 per cent support the Conservatives. Support for the Bloc Québécois and NDP is static compared to a week ago, holding at seven per cent each:

By region

The Liberals continue to outperform the Conservatives in the country’s seat-rich provinces. The lead for Carney’s party is 16 points in Ontario over the Conservatives, and 11 points in B.C. The Liberals also lead by seven points in Quebec over the Bloc, who currently have the support of one-in-three (32%) in the province.

The CPC generate strong support in the Prairies, but are nearly doubled by the Liberals in Atlantic Canada:

Compared to data taken to the prior campaign, the Liberals have solidified the party’s hold on the country’s largest metro centres. Vote intention for the Liberals has grown by 10 points in Metro Vancouver, seven points in Toronto’s downtown core and six points Toronto’s outer ring. In Montreal, support has held, with 50 per cent in that city saying they would vote Liberal if the election was today:

By age and gender

Support for the Liberals has grown the most among young men (+10) since before the writs were issued, but the party has also made gains among women under 55.
The Conservatives continue to perform best among men aged 35 to 54:

Uncommitted Liberal voters are locking in

The first weeks of the official election campaign led to a key conflict in the data: while the Liberals were rapidly ascending in vote intention, its newly-grown base was largely ambivalent about its level of vote commitment, prompting the question of how durable this support was, given it materialized in such a short period of time.

Prior to the campaign’s official launch, half (49%) of Liberal supporters said they were “very committed” to their vote, while the rest were in various states of willingness to change their mind. That figure has risen now to 62 per cent as the Liberals slowly close the commitment gap between them and the Conservatives, who continue to lead with approaching three-quarters (72%) of their supporters reporting being locked in:

Part Two: Leadership

Momentum

Carney continues to generate positive personal momentum – more Canadians say their view of him has improved (44%) than worsened (31%) in recent weeks. However, there is evidence his positive momentum is slowing. The percentage of Canadians who say their opinion of Carney has worsened in recent weeks has grown by six points compared to data taken the weekend the writs dropped.

Still, Carney maintains a significant advantage on this front over rivals Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh, leader of the NDP:

Favourability

Most (55%) Canadians say they have a favourable view of Carney, statistically similar to numbers seen in the first two weeks of the campaign. But approaching two-in-five (38%) say they have an unfavourable view of the Liberal leader, the most seen since ARI first started asking about Carney during the Liberal leadership race:

Poilievre is trending in the wrong direction. Three-in-five (60%) Canadians say they have an unfavourable view of him, the most that have expressed a negative impression of the CPC leader since he first stepped into that office in September 2022. One-third (34%) say they view Poilievre favourably:

Carney viewed as best prime minister by half

Carney’s edge in positive impressions perhaps contributes to the significant advantage he has over Poilievre on the question of which of the two leaders would make the best prime minister. Half (50%) of Canadians, including at least half of all demographics except men aged 35 to 54, believe Carney is the best choice for the country’s top job. Three-in-10 (28%) instead choose Poilievre, who finds the most support on this metric among men older than 34:

METHODOLOGY:

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from April 4-7, 2025, among a randomized sample of 2,184 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.