Liberals Surge To 44% Towards A Likely Majority Win

Polls show Mark Carney's Liberals are rising in the polls as they head toward a potential majority win.

Editor: Yiannis Damellos

As the 2025 federal election campaign intensifies, Canada's political landscape is undergoing significant changes. The Liberal Party of Canada, led by Mark Carney, is gaining momentum and moving ahead of the opposition. Recent polling data from various sources indicates that the Liberals are likely to secure a majority government, with strong support nationwide, especially in Quebec and BC.

According to polling and analytics firms such as Research Co. and 338Canada, the Liberals are projected to receive 44% of the popular vote, which puts them significantly ahead of the Conservatives, who are expected to gather around 36%. Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party (NDP) is trailing with only 8%, and the Bloc Québécois stands at 6%. These figures illustrate a broader trend that has emerged since the campaign's onset, with the Liberals gaining ground while their opponents have declined.

Mark Carney's approval ratings are notably high, with 58% of Canadians expressing support for his leadership. This places him well ahead of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who has an approval rating of 44%, and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who is at 40%. In Quebec, the situation is particularly concerning for the Bloc Québécois, which has seen its support drop to just 19%, placing it in third behind both the Liberals and Conservatives.

The data indicates that voters are increasingly prioritizing federal leadership on issues such as Canada-U.S. relations, identified by 31% of likely voters as the most pressing concern. This is followed by the economy and job stability at 19%, and housing, homelessness, and poverty at 18%. Carney's strong stance on these issues appears to resonate with voters, further solidifying his position as a leading candidate.

In Quebec, a recent report from the Angus Reid Institute reveals that the Liberals currently hold a seven-point lead over the Bloc Québécois, which contrasts sharply with previous elections where the Bloc was a dominant force. Polls suggest that the Liberals could win an average of 49 seats in Quebec, while the Bloc is projected to secure only 16 seats. This trend is concerning for the Bloc, as it may face significant losses if the current patterns continue.

The implications of these polling trends are significant. If the Liberals achieve these projected numbers, it would represent their best performance in over forty years. However, political analysts warn that the election is still weeks away, and voter sentiments can change rapidly. Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party (NDP), which won 25 seats in the 2021 election, is now projected to secure only four seats, raising concerns about its viability as a recognized party in the House of Commons.

Jagmeet Singh, despite the discouraging projections, remains resolute. He expressed confidence in his ability to win his riding of Burnaby Central, stating, "Absolutely. I'm confident that I'll be able to serve the people of Burnaby Central." However, many voters, including those within Singh’s own party, are expressing doubts about the NDP's chances. Some are considering voting strategically for the Liberals to prevent a Conservative victory.

Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair acknowledged that the current election landscape resembles a two-horse race. He suggested that many traditional NDP supporters are now leaning towards the Liberals in hopes of countering the perceived threats posed by Conservative policies. This sentiment is echoed by political observers, who note that Singh's long tenure as NDP leader without forming a government may be influencing voter decisions.

As the campaign progresses, the focus on key issues such as Canada-U.S. relations and economic stability remains paramount. The latest Research Co. poll reveals that 60% of likely voters feel comfortable with Carney managing Canada's economy, compared to only 46% who feel the same way about Poilievre. This perception could significantly influence undecided voters as the election date approaches.

In British Columbia, where the NDP has traditionally enjoyed strong support, the party's prospects seem to be declining. Recent surveys show that many voters are hesitant to back the NDP due to concerns about the party's ability to win. Al Henry, a voter from Vancouver, expressed his frustration, saying, "I just hope Poilievre does not get in," which indicates a willingness to vote strategically rather than supporting a party he believes may not succeed.

Political scientist Sanjay Jeram highlighted that tariffs and the public's desire for their votes to matter are contributing to the NDP's struggles. With Jagmeet Singh being the longest-serving leader among the major parties, there is a growing perception that the NDP has not effectively capitalized on its opportunities, leading to voter disillusionment.

As the campaign enters its final weeks, the stakes are high for all parties involved. The potential for a Liberal majority government looms large, and the Bloc Québécois faces an existential crisis if current trends continue. While the NDP is fighting to maintain its relevance, the Conservatives are scrambling to regain lost ground.

With the election approaching, Canadian voters are gearing up to make their voices heard. The outcome will not only decide the future of the federal government but will also influence the political landscape for years to come. As polls continue to fluctuate, one thing is clear: the next few weeks will be critical for all parties as they work to persuade undecided voters and strengthen their support among loyal constituents.among loyal constituents.