Mario Canseco: Carneymania hits B.C. with poll numbers Trudeau Sr. would have envied

Liberal support surges on the West Coast as PM expands lead ahead of election, according to Research Co.
Mario Canseco

Apr 8, 2025 6:00 AM

As the federal election campaign continues, the latest Research Co. poll shows the governing Liberal Party with an eight-point lead over the opposition Conservative Party at the national level among decided voters (44 percent to 36 percent).

The remaining contenders are in single digits: the New Democratic Party at eight percent, the Bloc Québécois at five percent, the Green Party at three percent, and the People’s Party at one percent.

The Liberals have gained three points since late March, while the Conservatives and the New Democrats have lost one. Support for the Liberals among decided voters reaches 51 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 48 percent in Ontario, and 44 percent in British Columbia. We need to go back to the original Trudeaumania in 1968 to find a level of support this high for the Liberals in B.C. (42 per cent).

In Quebec, the Bloc is now in third place with 19 percent, as decided voters coalesce around the two federalist options: the Liberals (47 percent) and the Conservatives (22 percent).

Canada-U.S. Relations continues to galvanize the electorate, with 31 per cent of likely voters (up one point) saying it is the most important issue facing the country—higher than the economy and jobs (19 per cent, down one point); housing, homelessness and poverty (18 percent, up one point); and health care (11 percent, up two points).

Prime Minister and Liberal Leader Mark Carney heads to the final weeks of the campaign with an approval rating of 58 percent (up one point). The numbers are lower for Official Opposition and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (44 percent, down two points), NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh (40 percent, up two points), Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault (25 percent, down five points), Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet (also 25 percent, unchanged) and People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier (22 percent, down three points).

Carney has also extended his advantage on the “Best Prime Minister” question, where he is now 14 points ahead of Poilievre (43 percent to 29 percent, with Singh a distant third at nine percent). Carney also posts a momentum score of +14, with 36 per cent of likely voters saying their opinion of the Liberal leader has improved since the start of the campaign. The other five contenders are in negative territory, with more than a third of likely voters (35 percent) saying their view of Poilievre has worsened.

When asked which one of the two main party leaders is better suited to handle 10 issues, Carney is definitively ahead of Poilievre on seven:

• Canada-U.S. Relations (49 percent to 29 percent), foreign affairs (46 percent to 30 percent);
• The economy and jobs (46 percent to 32 percent); accountability and leadership (44 percent to 32 percent);
• Health care (43 percent to 28 percent);
• The environment (42 percent to 26 percent);
• And housing, homelessness, and poverty (41 percent to 31 percent).

The two candidates are closer to each other on three other issues:

• Crime and public safety (Poilievre 36 percent, Carney 34 percent);
• Energy and pipelines (Carney 38 percent, Poilievre 37 percent);
• And immigration (Carney 37 percent, Poilievre 36 percent).

There is also movement on the financial management question, where Poilievre was ahead of Justin Trudeau last year and in January. Three in five likely voters (60 percent, up two points) say they are comfortable with Carney being in charge of Canada’s economy, while fewer than half (46 percent, down three points) feel the same way about the Conservative leader.

While we still have plenty of campaign activity left, including the televised debates, some voters have made up their minds about who not to back. More than half of likely voters say there is nothing Singh or Poilievre can do or say (54 percent and 51 percent, respectively) to make them vote for their respective parties. Only 43 percent of Canadians say they would not be swayed to vote Liberal by anything Carney says or does.

There is a data point that is worth exploring. While only five percent of likely voters in our survey were undecided, the proportion rises to eight percent among those who supported the New Democrats in 2021. It might not seem like much, but only two per cent of likely voters who backed the Liberals or the Conservatives in 2021 are currently not sure about who to support. Where these undecided former New Democrats go on election day will define the size of the party’s caucus in Ottawa.

In British Columbia, where the New Democrats won 13 of the 42 seats at stake in 2021, three in five voters (60 percent) would not cast a ballot for the NDP in 2025 compared with 43 percent who express a similar view of the Liberals. Unless the New Democrats can reverse this trend at the local level, federal seats switching from “orange” to “red” or “blue” in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island could go from possibility to reality.

Mario Canseco is the president of Research Co.

Results are based on an online survey conducted on April 5 and April 6, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,007 likely voters in Canada, including 956 decided voters in the 2025 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, 19 times out of 20.