The Conservative Party has narrowed the lead slightly and the party is somewhat ahead of its performance in the last election. At this stage, however, this improvement would do little to prevent a Liberal majority, particularly given the Liberal Party’s seat efficiency in the key regions.
The Liberals now hold consistent and significant leads in Quebec, Ontario, and the Atlantic. If this persists to the election, the Liberals could secure a majority before vote counting begins in some ridings. They also lead in British Columbia and have better prospects in Alberta than in recent elections.
Much has been written about crowd sizes, engagement levels, and skepticism about the polls. Our tests of engagement show no Liberal deficit, although it may be that younger male Conservative supporters are more engaged than younger Liberal women. The gender gap is astonishing, with the Liberals ahead by 29 points with women (a demographic that had a somewhat higher turnout in the last election). On all of the key commitment indicators we are tracking, the Liberals are at least on par with the Conservatives. Their support base, which skews older and higher socioeconomic status, is historically linked to higher turnout.
The Liberal resurgence has been driven by a variety of factors, most notably a “Trump effect,” anxieties about tariffs and annexation talk, and a general recoil with the vivid illustration of what the right-wing populist government to the south actually looks like. These concerns appear to be the key drivers of this unprecedented political recovery.
At this stage, nothing much seems to be changing despite a welter of daily announcements from the parties and the intensification of the ad wars. The debates are one of the few plausible roadblocks to what seems an increasingly likely Liberal majority. However, while debates are the most watched spectacle of the campaign, it is very rare for a debate to fundamentally alter the path of an election.
All in all, the campaign has settled into a highly stable pattern which, without a major disruption, is pointing toward a Liberal majority victory. This outcome would have been unthinkable only three months ago and the depth of the transformation of the voter landscape suggests that some pretty powerful forces have wrought this profound shift.
Methodology:
This survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline-only random digit dialling (RDD), we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cellphone-only households and landline-only households.
The field dates for the three-day roll-up are April 8-10, 2025. In total, a random sample of 1,269 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The field dates for the five-day roll-up are April 6-10, 2025. In total, a random sample of 1,995 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, and education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data. The results have also been weighted by COVID-19 vaccine uptake to better represent the institutionally mistrustful, who are often less likely to participate in surveys.
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