Turkey and Israel are becoming deadly rivals in Syria

The Middle East's beefier powers are playing out their regional ambitions there.

For weeks Turkish army officials had been traveling to air bases across Syria, and hashing out plans to equip at least some of them with air-defence systems and armed drones. Preparations for Turkey’s takeover of the T4 air base near Palmyra were said to be underway. Then, late on April 2nd, Israel attacked. Israeli planes bombed the T4’s runway and radar systems. They also hit at least two more bases and other military targets in Syria.

In case any doubt remained about Israel’s alarm at Turkish activity in Syria, its officials hammered the message home. Syria was in danger of becoming a Turkish protectorate, cautioned Gideon Sa’ar, Israel’s foreign minister. Syria’s leaders would pay a heavy price if they allowed forces hostile to Israel to enter Syria and endanger the Jewish state’s security interests, warned Israel Katz, its defense minister.

Israel is worried by the scale of Turkey’s involvement in Syria, including its plans to set up military bases and supply the new government’s fledgling army with weapons. Turkey fears that Israel wants to see Syria implode, or break apart. Each accuses the other of preparing to wage war by proxy.

Israel does seem determined to keep Syria weak and divided. Successive Israeli attacks on the infrastructure of Syria’s old army have destroyed many of the Assad regime’s aging Soviet-built aircraft. “They’ve taken out every inch of military capability they deemed a potential challenge to Israeli security interests,” says Alper Coskun, a former Turkish diplomat now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has also invoked the rights of Syria’s Druze minority to demand the demilitarisation of the country’s south.

Israeli officials have no faith in Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, whom Mr. Katz describes as “a jihadist terrorist of the al-Qaeda school”. Mr Sharaa has vowed to prevent his country from becoming a hub for foreign radicals, as it was under the Assads. But Israeli officials fear that Syria’s new leader, backed by Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a longtime supporter of Hamas, may soon roll out a welcome mat for the group.

Israel and Turkey also disagree about governance. Israeli officials have openly suggested a federal model for Syria, whereby different minorities, including the Kurds and the Alawites (a Muslim sect from which the Assads hail), would enjoy extensive autonomy. The recent massacres of hundreds of Alawite civilians by armed groups loyal to Syria’s new rulers, they argue, show that Mr Sharaa cannot be trusted.

Mr Sharaa and his Turkish allies have had a wholly different system in mind: a strong central government headed by a president with sweeping executive powers. On March 13th Mr Sharaa signed a new constitution based on just such a model. Days earlier, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the predominantly Kurdish militia in charge of much of Syria’s north-east, agreed to join the interim government.

Mr Erdogan has accused Israel of stirring up Syria’s ethnic and religious minorities to destabilize a country emerging from one of this century’s deadliest wars. But what worries him most is the relationship between Israel and the Kurds. Turkey suspects Israel of using the SDF to undermine Turkish influence in Syria and foment separatism within Turkey. Turkey sees the group as a front for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey and most Western countries list as terrorists.

Israel has not exactly allayed such concerns. Last year, Mr Sa’ar referred to the sdf and the Kurds as his country’s “natural allies” and called on the outside world to protect them from Turkey. It is unclear whether such overtures mean that Israel may help to arm the Kurds in Syria’s north-east, though many Israelis would relish a chance to give Mr Erdogan a taste of his own medicine, given his backing for Hamas.

Turkey is certainly taking this risk seriously. Fear of an alliance between Israel and the Kurds was a key factor behind Turkey’s decision last year to launch secret talks with the PKK’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan. These bore fruit in March when the PKK declared a temporary ceasefire. “Turkey thinks Israel wants to create a PKK statelet on its border,” says Dareen Khalifa of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank. “The Israelis think Turkey could use Syria against them the same way.”

Relations between Turkey and Israel, already poisoned by the war in Gaza, may still worsen. But actual armed conflict between NATO’s second-biggest army and America’s main regional ally is not likely. Neither side has any appetite to fight the other. Turkey and Israel are setting the stage for deterrence, not war. Mr Erdogan regards Donald Trump as an old friend and reckons that, with him as president, there may be an improvement in Turkey’s relations with America, including a chance to unblock the sale of f-35 stealth fighters. He is also hoping to improve relations with Europe, which wants him to help with security guarantees and peacekeeping in Ukraine. Mr Erdogan is unlikely to jeopardize all this by courting war with Israel.

Moreover, Turkey and Israel may yet find some common ground in the Levant. Both want to keep Iran from re-establishing a foothold in Syria. Both stand to lose if the new Syria fails. “Syria is a big country in deep crisis and [Mr Erdogan] won’t have time to challenge Israel,” says an Israeli intelligence source. “And if he succeeds in stabilizing what could have become a chaotic jihadist state, that is good for Israel as well.”