"I think there's a real chance numbers will deteriorate soon," such as in the U.S. labor market, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said on Tuesday. He noted tectonic shifts in such things as trade and geopolitics. "There's a lot of moving parts," he added.
"We see it a little bit today," he said at the Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference. "The tariffs are hitting." He's expecting bigger impacts coming in "maybe July, August, September, October....hopefully, it will not be dramatic. Maybe it'll be a little softer of a soft landing."
"None of it is material yet," he added. The consumer side of the business relies on employment.
"If inflation rears its ugly head, or you see stagflation, that will shock people," Dimon said.
Regarding bank regulation, Dimon railed against overly complicated rules that don't assess the real risks. "CCAR is dead wrong." Regulators should look at the global competitiveness, he said.
"If I ran the FDIC, me and my CEO friends, we would reduce the risk that people are taking on interest-rate exposure," he said. "Then you try to improve and fix regulation." He said he's not looking for "radical stuff" in changing regulations, but he does hope they are improved and fixed.
Some of the regulators don't know about the real world, he contends. "They're pure economists and think they know the real world, but they don't."
For use of its excess capital, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) will continue to pay its dividend, will grow organically, then will look at non-organic growth. As for stock buybacks, "I like buying stock real cheap," he said.
As for JPMorgan's (JPM) businesses. "There is no business we're in where we can't grow organically," "Organic is hard, you get resistance to it."
"I've always thought that with M&A, you get so smart looking at other companies. You're looking at the adjacencies. -- I want our people to look at them," he said
He said he won't change the company's 17% return on tangible common equity. "Organic growth is the most important. If you can earn 17% and grow organically," that's an accomplishment.
"In commercial bank, payment can grow, markets can grow. In consumer, auto mortgage credit card, they can all grow. In assets and wealth management, we can grow private bank clients. In each one of them, we hope to grow," Dimon said.
As it stands now, the mood among JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) clients is "okay," he said Consumers are making money, and they have a job; however, COVID savings are gone.
"On the corporate side, business is still okay," he said.
In discussing the standing of the U.S. dollar, he said, "if we're no longer the pre-eminent military power, if we're no longer the pre-eminent economy, then we'll no longer have the reserve currency. There's no replacement for it now."
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stock rose 0.6% in afternoon trading.
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