India’s old mantra of “non-alignment” has been replaced by “multi-alignment”, but Trump's tariffs catalyzed that choice

The Greek Courier

By Yiannis Damellos

Sunday, August 31, 2025

As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, the narrative surrounding his trip is often misconstrued, both by Trump supporters and critics. The latter view this renewed dialogue between India and China as a response to recent tensions between New Delhi and Washington. The Lowy Institute's "Interpreter" insists, however, that the reality is more complex, with a long-standing Indian strategy of diversification at play; I agree, to a certain degree. Yet, what the Institute fails to see is that although India's former approach of "non-alignment" has indeed shifted to "multi-alignment," this shift was largely catalyzed by Trump's tariffs. 

While India has forged closer ties with the U.S. over the past 15 years, this shift is not merely an alignment with American interests but a strategic choice to broaden its foreign policy options. Yet, the bitter memories of President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian imports, particularly in response to India's procurement of Russian oil, have left a lasting impact on Indian diplomacy. In addition, his perceived favoritism towards Pakistan further complicates relations and reinforces the sentiment in Delhi that a rapprochement with China might be necessary.

India has never fully aligned with the U.S. against China, and this latest strain in U.S.-India relations only strengthens the resolve of those in Delhi who advocate for preserving a non-aligned stance. The partnership with the U.S. is viewed as crucial for trade and security, yet the desire to maintain strategic autonomy drives India’s reluctance to fully embrace American policies. 

Trump's administration played a critical role in shaping these dynamics. His "America First" rhetoric resonated with Modi's nationalist base and provided a context in which Modi could assert India's independence from foreign powers, world status, or regional illusion of grandeur. However, the promises made under Trump's tenure, such as the Communications, Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), have largely gone unfulfilled, with India still relying heavily on Russian military support.

The shift from a "non-alignment" approach to "multi-alignment" - very reminiscent of Carney's Canadian diversification plan- reflects India's desire to avoid overreliance on any single great power, particularly the United States. This principle is not new in nature. It has been evident in India's ongoing ties with Russia, even in the wake of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Modi's keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2018 emphasized India’s intention to view the Indo-Pacific region not as a strategy aimed at any particular country, directly countering U.S. desires for a tougher stance on China.

Also, India’s growing relationship with France illustrates this quest for strategic multialignment. Both nations share a vision that is less confrontational toward China, and military cooperation with France does not induce the same dependency as with the U.S.

Modi's engagement with China should also be viewed through this lens. Ongoing diplomatic consultations aim to de-escalate border disputes that flared up in 2020-21, but this does not equate to a resolution. As China remains India’s second-largest trading partner, the objective is to manage tensions to protect vital trade relations. 

Nevertheless, security concerns persist, particularly regarding China’s military cooperation with Pakistan and its growing presence in the Indian Ocean. These factors exacerbate India’s fears of encirclement and highlight the complex interplay of regional dynamics.

While an India-China thaw could signify progress, it is essential not to overstate its implications for the broader U.S.-China-India triangle. The volatility of this relationship has always been more pronounced than U.S. strategists anticipated, and understanding this context is crucial for interpreting Modi's approach to foreign policy. The catalyst for this shift, in many respects, has been the pressures and provocations of the Trump administration, which have ultimately shaped India's choices on the global stage.

The iPhone menage

When Trump's trade war with China prompted the need for an alternative production base for iPhones to protect US consumers from potential price hikes, India eagerly stepped in, allowing Apple to shift much of its iPhone assembly there. While Trump expressed skepticism towards BRICS—an economic partnership that seems aimed at diminishing US influence—India positioned itself as a key ally for Washington, firmly opposing any efforts by the grouping to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, which is vital to American global power. This shift is the result of decades of bipartisan efforts to strengthen ties between India and the US, helping to steer India away from China's influence.

However, in just over a week, Trump put that partnership at risk. He has implemented significantly higher effective tariffs on India, reaching 50%, compared to the 30% tariff on China, his primary rival. This move appears to be largely motivated by Trump's frustration over India's continued purchase of discounted oil from Russia, which has been ongoing for years despite Western sanctions. Adding to the confusion is the fact that Trump has maintained a notably lenient stance toward Russia during his second term, and that China also imports Russian oil. This decision has left Indian officials perplexed and frustrated with Trump's preferential treatment, as it jeopardized the carefully cultivated relationship with the US at a critical juncture.

To sum up, India's pursuit of diversification in its foreign policy is a vital strategy for ensuring national security and economic stability amidst a rapidly changing global landscape. The shift towards multi-alignment reflects India's understanding that over-reliance on any single country could jeopardize its interests. In this context, former President Trump's strategic miscalculation in imposing punitive tariffs on India not only undermined the burgeoning partnership between the two nations but also pushed India to reconsider its options. Instead of fostering cooperation, these tariffs exacerbated India's apprehensions, inadvertently compelling it to strengthen ties with other powers, including China and Russia. Trump's actions, therefore, represent a missed opportunity to solidify a vital ally in a region increasingly influenced by China's assertiveness. By punishing India, the U.S. risks losing a key partner that had been inclined to collaborate against common challenges, ultimately highlighting the delicate balance of international relations that requires both respect and strategic foresight.