France, Argentina, Norway: The Two Towers and the Beacon of Hope

The Greek Courier
September 8, 2025

Summary

• Bayrou Loses Confidence Vote in Parliament
• Argentina's Milei Faces Need for Alliances After Electoral Defeat
• Norway's Ruling Labour Party Wins Reelection, While Populists Make Gains

In recent weeks, political landscapes on both sides of the Atlantic have been rocked by crises stemming from leadership changes, the rise of populism, and pressing fiscal challenges. From France's parliament ousting Prime Minister Francois Bayrou to the electoral defeat of Argentina's President Javier Milei, the theme of governance under pressure has become increasingly apparent. Even in Norway, where the ruling Labour Party Won a Reelection, Populists Made serious gains.

An alarming fiscal crisis in the shadow of Marine Le Pen's rise

In France, the government faced a confidence vote that resulted in the ousting of Bayrou, who struggled to manage a burgeoning national debt and a deficit nearly double the European Union's threshold. Parliament's vote of 364 to 194 reflects a deepening political crisis, leaving President Emmanuel Macron to search for a fifth prime minister in less than two years. 

The immediate task for the incoming government will be to navigate a divided parliament and pass a budget that addresses the rising costs of public spending. As Bayrou aptly noted, "Reality will remain relentless: expenses will continue to rise, and the burden of debt... will grow heavier."

"This moment marks the end of the agony of a phantom government," far-right leader Marine Le Pen said, pushing for a snap parliamentary election, which Macron has so far ruled out.

A lengthy period of political and fiscal uncertainty risks undermining Macron's influence in Europe at a time when the United States is talking tough on trade and security, and war is raging in Ukraine on Europe's eastern flank.

The French president could now nominate a politician from his own centrist minority ruling group or from the ranks of conservatives as the next premier, but that would mean doubling down on a strategy that has failed to yield a stable alliance.

He could also tack to the left and nominate a moderate socialist, or choose a technocrat.

No scenario would be likely to hand the next government a parliamentary majority. It was inevitable that the need to form a new government would result in a dilution of the deficit reduction plan, Finance Minister Eric Lombard said before the vote.

Macron may eventually decide the only path out of the crisis lies in calling a snap election, but he has so far resisted calls from Le Pen's National Rally and from France Unbowed to dissolve parliament a second time.

Milei and the Peronist "Congress"

Across the Atlantic, Argentina's political scene mirrored these struggles. President Milei's recent electoral defeat in Buenos Aires highlighted the backlash against his austerity measures, which sought to stabilize an economy plagued by inflation but failed to resonate with voters facing immediate hardship. 

The Peronist opposition, led by Axel Kicillof, capitalized on this discontent, winning decisively and casting doubt on Milei's ability to govern effectively. Analysts suggest that Milei must forge political alliances to advance his agenda, echoing the broader theme of collaboration needed in times of economic distress.

The Peronists are now the largest bloc in Argentina’s fragmented congress, and have used their numbers to pass social spending measures that are testing Milei's efforts to balance Argentina's budget.

“This result is a key data point to understand the social mood — where the opposition stands, the state of Peronism and the level of support for the government in Argentina’s most important electoral district,” said Juan Cruz Díaz, the head of Cefeidas Group, a consultancy in Buenos Aires.

Is Norway a beacon of hope?

Meanwhile, in Norway, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere's Labour Party secured a second term, yet the emergence of a strong populist right poses significant challenges. Stoere's government must now negotiate with five smaller parties to pass crucial legislation, including fiscal budgets. 

The rising cost of living and concerns over international conflicts have polarized voters, pushing many towards right-wing alternatives. The Progress Party's significant gain in seats illustrates a shift that could complicate Stoere's governance, as he grapples with issues like oil investments and wealth distribution.

"This is a signal to outside Norway that social democracy can also win despite a right-wing wave," Stoere told a jubilant crowd of Labour supporters chanting "four more years."

The Labour party alongside four, smaller left-leaning parties, secured 87 seats, with 99% of the votes counted. That's two more than the minimum needed to secure a majority, but down from a combined 100 seats in 2021.

On the right, the populist Progress Party, the center-right Conservatives and two smaller groups looked set to win the remaining 82 seats. Nevertheless, Progress Party managed to double its score from the 2021 election.

"Tonight, we are going to celebrate the best score in our history, and my goal is for this to be just the beginning," Progress Party leader Sylvi Listhaug said. 

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As these nations navigate their respective crises, the common thread of political instability and fiscal responsibility underscores a pivotal moment in European and Latin American governance. Leaders are confronted with the dual challenge of managing public discontent while striving for economic stability. The outcomes of these leadership changes and policy decisions will be closely watched, as they hold significant implications not only for domestic politics but also for international relations and economic conditions across the globe.