The outlook for Gaza and a future Palestinian state
Nov 12th 2025|1 min read
By Nicolas Pelham
Middle East correspondent
No sooner had Israel completed its partial withdrawal from Gaza, as set out in the Trump Plan, than it began slicing the strip in two. On October 9th Israeli engineers laid knee-high yellow saddle-stones. Weeks later they added chunky yellow blocks. A concrete wall could follow. The new “yellow” line would define a small Palestinian enclave within a larger Israeli-occupied zone. Israel is meant to withdraw fully once Hamas disarms and an international stabilisation force takes over. Neither looks imminent. Gaza’s partition may therefore become indefinite.
The inner enclave will hold Gaza’s 2m displaced people, still under Hamas’s thumb and living in camps dependent on dwindling UN relief. Israel sees the surrounding zone—“Gaza East”—as a showcase for renewal, with a tariff-free trade area at Rafah on the Egyptian border and a new port on Israel’s border. Israel would direct the investment, while “Gaza West” festers. The division also mirrors the rivalry between Gaza’s regional backers. Qatar will bankroll the Hamas-run enclave. The UAE, Israel’s anti-Islamist Gulf partner, will fund reconstruction of the outer ring by Egyptian firms.
Governance will be split. Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” might oversee reconstruction from the Israeli side. On the Palestinian, Israel could release Marwan Barghouti, the most popular Palestinian leader, from jail and exile him to Hamas’s enclave. He will wait for the elections that Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, has promised by October 2026.
Mr Barghouti could be the one figure able to defeat Hamas at the ballot box. That could prompt a handover of power in Gaza as well as the West Bank. With Hamas out of power, decommissioning could start. Reconstruction might finally begin. But Israel’s steady annexation of the West Bank would continue. ■
The devastated strip may have more unexploded bombs than anywhere in the world
No sooner had Israel completed its partial withdrawal from Gaza, as set out in the Trump Plan, than it began slicing the strip in two. On October 9th Israeli engineers laid knee-high yellow saddle-stones. Weeks later they added chunky yellow blocks. A concrete wall could follow. The new “yellow” line would define a small Palestinian enclave within a larger Israeli-occupied zone. Israel is meant to withdraw fully once Hamas disarms and an international stabilisation force takes over. Neither looks imminent. Gaza’s partition may therefore become indefinite.
The inner enclave will hold Gaza’s 2m displaced people, still under Hamas’s thumb and living in camps dependent on dwindling UN relief. Israel sees the surrounding zone—“Gaza East”—as a showcase for renewal, with a tariff-free trade area at Rafah on the Egyptian border and a new port on Israel’s border. Israel would direct the investment, while “Gaza West” festers. The division also mirrors the rivalry between Gaza’s regional backers. Qatar will bankroll the Hamas-run enclave. The UAE, Israel’s anti-Islamist Gulf partner, will fund reconstruction of the outer ring by Egyptian firms.
Governance will be split. Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” might oversee reconstruction from the Israeli side. On the Palestinian, Israel could release Marwan Barghouti, the most popular Palestinian leader, from jail and exile him to Hamas’s enclave. He will wait for the elections that Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, has promised by October 2026.
Mr Barghouti could be the one figure able to defeat Hamas at the ballot box. That could prompt a handover of power in Gaza as well as the West Bank. With Hamas out of power, decommissioning could start. Reconstruction might finally begin. But Israel’s steady annexation of the West Bank would continue. ■
Middle East & Africa | The remnants of war
The dangers beneath Gaza’s rubble
|AMMAN
Unexploded ordnance (uxo) is the long tail of conflict, killing and maiming long after the bombs stop falling. A year ago the government media office in Gaza, run by Hamas, estimated there was over 7,000 tonnes in the strip; that would be more per square metre than perhaps anywhere else in the world. For Gaza’s militants, this presents an opportunity. For years they have remade this stuff into new weapons to use again against Israel.
For Gazans, they are yet another danger. Smaller munitions—grenades, mortar shells and improvised explosive devices—are in or on the rubble. In October Yahya and Nabila Shorbasi, six-year-old twins, were badly injured after mistaking an explosive for a toy.
Greater danger lies farther down. Israel dropped thousands of bombs on Gaza; some weighed as much as 900kg (2,000lb). Some were fitted with delayed fuses to detonate inside buildings or underground. Concrete cushions the fall of bombs which means they may not detonate on impact but rather tunnel underground.
Disposing of this ordnance safely is lengthy, expensive and dangerous work. Britain has pledged £4m ($5.25m) to the United Nations Mine Action Service (unmas) for de-mining. Eight years after the nine-month campaign to expel Islamic state from Mosul in Iraq, unmas is still clearing uxo. Israel bombed Gaza far more heavily.
In Gaza Israel restricts both the experts and the equipment needed for clearance. Palestinians are not permitted to train in explosives disposal. International specialists are rarely granted entry. Much of the necessary kit appears on Israel’s list of banned “dual-use” items. De-miners are improvising. Old food sacks are filled with sand to use as blast shields.
Even with the right tools, Gaza’s conditions are testing. In Mosul residents are evacuated while explosives are cleared. In Gaza people have nowhere to go. unmas prints warnings about uxo on food-aid packets. But when they find explosives, they can do little more than mark them. Meanwhile, Hamas continues to repurpose those they find to continue its fight.■
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