By Eric Bazail-Eimil, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, and Megan Messerly
01/05/2026
The silence marks a sharp departure from the widespread and passionate condemnation this weekend of the U.S. capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
President Donald Trump is lobbing increasingly direct threats at multiple countries in Latin America following the U.S. operation in Venezuela this weekend. But rather than banding together, the reeling region is splintering over what sort of defense to mount — if any.
In Mexico, where Trump has said he is considering bombing cartels trafficking fentanyl to the United States, President Claudia Sheinbaum is trying to downplay the risk. Responding to reporters’ questions on Monday, she said “I don’t believe in an invasion,” adding “I don’t even think it’s something they’re taking very seriously.”
By contrast, Colombian President Gustavo Petro is going on the offensive. He has sought to rally his people in the face of threats from Trump that he too could be arrested like ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro for drug trafficking. Petro said in a lengthy social media post Monday that he “called on the people to defend the president against any illegitimate violent act” and denied allegations he’s a “narco.” Colombia also deployed thousands of troops to its border with Venezuela over the weekend.
In Cuba, where Trump has predicted that the island’s communist government will soon collapse, officials are simply hoping to avoid complete economic collapse. Trump has predicted that Havana will fall without any intervention from the U.S. ahead of an expected drop off in support from Venezuela, its longtime patron. Officials are already acknowledging that the capture of Maduro will disrupt vital economic support from Caracas and exacerbate shortages of electricity and basic goods.
The atmosphere is one of anxiety bordering on panic. “All nations of the region must remain alert, as the threat hangs over all,” the Cuban government said in a Saturday statement. And in a rare move given state-sponsored repression on the island, ordinary Cubans have publicly expressed their worries to news outlets that the Cuban economy, stagnant in the face of punishing U.S. sanctions, will buckle.
In the wider region, meanwhile, even some of these countries’ allies are refusing to engage, leaving Trump’s targets to fend for themselves. Regional blocs — or even larger countries such as Brazil — have not condemned the president’s threats against Colombia and Mexico. Sympathetic governments have also declined to publicly increase their support for Cuba.
“The return of the Monroe Doctrine is coming at a very inconvenient time for Latin America given the divisions in the region,” said Benjamin Gedan, who served as South America director on the Obama administration National Security Council. “It’s a low point of regional cooperation and the U.S. is taking advantage of this. The instinct right now is for leaders to keep their head down since they know they’re likely alone if they protest, and therefore a target.”
The region has been silent on Mexico, Colombia and Cuba even though many of these countries loudly condemned the U.S. capture of Maduro this weekend. And it suggests that if Trump follows through in any one of these countries, he may not face much pushback from neighbors.
“There’ll be more of a reaction. But I don’t expect to see the region suddenly turn and become anti-U.S. because of that. I don’t think so,” said Frank Mora, who served as ambassador to the Organization of American States during the Biden administration and has spoken to Latin American officials in recent days.
The region is particularly divided right now. Recent elections across the Western Hemisphere have resulted in a crop of right-wing governments eager to cultivate better ties with Washington. Many have been at odds with both Maduro and the left-wing governments that Trump has sparred with in Havana, Bogotá and Mexico City.
One Latin American official predicted that even so, many would rally together if Trump does take action against other countries in the region.
“The focus right now is on the current events in Venezuela and the extremely serious precedent of this episode for the whole world, not only Latin America,” said the Latin American official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the mood among governments in the region. The official added that could change if Trump proceeds with strikes against Colombia or Mexico, owing to the fact both countries’ governments are seen as legitimate and democratic.
There’s also skepticism in the region that Trump would go forward with strikes on Colombia and Mexico, given the United States’ deep economic and security relationships with both countries.
“Venezuela is a special case in the sense that it is a country very close to the U.S. with the clear presence of China, Russia, Iran in the country,” said a second Latin American official.
But the countries in Trump’s crosshairs have vastly different relationships with the American president, making any sort of unified response challenging. Some have been more successful than others at winning his favor.
Sheinbaum has earned praise from the White House and others for deftly navigating the bilateral relationship with her mercurial counterpart. She’s stepped up security cooperation with the United States, despite Trump’s continued threats.
“I think she’s a terrific person,” Trump said of Sheinbaum in Sunday remarks to reporters aboard Air Force One.
But in the case of Petro, Trump has accused the Colombian leader of being involved in cocaine trafficking. The Trump administration has long been at odds with Petro, who has been a consistent thorn in the White House’s side since the president returned to power. Petro has at various points throttled cooperation on deportations and rankled the White House after calling on U.S. servicemembers to resist U.S. support of Israel at a September protest of the war in the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has treated Cuba like a pariah, reducing cooperation on economic and security issues to the bare minimum and imposing harsh new sanctions against the island nation. And it is widely understood that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, has backed an aggressive posture toward Venezuela as a way to weaken Havana.
For the president’s boosters, the threats of military force against — and the broadly more muscular posture towards — Latin America speak to how the administration is prioritizing the region and willing to use all the tools at its disposal to achieve its aims close to home.
“We want to narrow America’s global role to our core interests … but we want to have a very expansive interpretation of our interests in the hemisphere, “ said Alex Gray, who served as National Security Council chief of staff and deputy assistant to the president during the first Trump administration.
Ari Hawkins contributed to this report.
The silence marks a sharp departure from the widespread and passionate condemnation this weekend of the U.S. capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
President Donald Trump is lobbing increasingly direct threats at multiple countries in Latin America following the U.S. operation in Venezuela this weekend. But rather than banding together, the reeling region is splintering over what sort of defense to mount — if any.
In Mexico, where Trump has said he is considering bombing cartels trafficking fentanyl to the United States, President Claudia Sheinbaum is trying to downplay the risk. Responding to reporters’ questions on Monday, she said “I don’t believe in an invasion,” adding “I don’t even think it’s something they’re taking very seriously.”
By contrast, Colombian President Gustavo Petro is going on the offensive. He has sought to rally his people in the face of threats from Trump that he too could be arrested like ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro for drug trafficking. Petro said in a lengthy social media post Monday that he “called on the people to defend the president against any illegitimate violent act” and denied allegations he’s a “narco.” Colombia also deployed thousands of troops to its border with Venezuela over the weekend.
In Cuba, where Trump has predicted that the island’s communist government will soon collapse, officials are simply hoping to avoid complete economic collapse. Trump has predicted that Havana will fall without any intervention from the U.S. ahead of an expected drop off in support from Venezuela, its longtime patron. Officials are already acknowledging that the capture of Maduro will disrupt vital economic support from Caracas and exacerbate shortages of electricity and basic goods.
The atmosphere is one of anxiety bordering on panic. “All nations of the region must remain alert, as the threat hangs over all,” the Cuban government said in a Saturday statement. And in a rare move given state-sponsored repression on the island, ordinary Cubans have publicly expressed their worries to news outlets that the Cuban economy, stagnant in the face of punishing U.S. sanctions, will buckle.
In the wider region, meanwhile, even some of these countries’ allies are refusing to engage, leaving Trump’s targets to fend for themselves. Regional blocs — or even larger countries such as Brazil — have not condemned the president’s threats against Colombia and Mexico. Sympathetic governments have also declined to publicly increase their support for Cuba.
“The return of the Monroe Doctrine is coming at a very inconvenient time for Latin America given the divisions in the region,” said Benjamin Gedan, who served as South America director on the Obama administration National Security Council. “It’s a low point of regional cooperation and the U.S. is taking advantage of this. The instinct right now is for leaders to keep their head down since they know they’re likely alone if they protest, and therefore a target.”
The region has been silent on Mexico, Colombia and Cuba even though many of these countries loudly condemned the U.S. capture of Maduro this weekend. And it suggests that if Trump follows through in any one of these countries, he may not face much pushback from neighbors.
“There’ll be more of a reaction. But I don’t expect to see the region suddenly turn and become anti-U.S. because of that. I don’t think so,” said Frank Mora, who served as ambassador to the Organization of American States during the Biden administration and has spoken to Latin American officials in recent days.
The region is particularly divided right now. Recent elections across the Western Hemisphere have resulted in a crop of right-wing governments eager to cultivate better ties with Washington. Many have been at odds with both Maduro and the left-wing governments that Trump has sparred with in Havana, Bogotá and Mexico City.
One Latin American official predicted that even so, many would rally together if Trump does take action against other countries in the region.
“The focus right now is on the current events in Venezuela and the extremely serious precedent of this episode for the whole world, not only Latin America,” said the Latin American official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the mood among governments in the region. The official added that could change if Trump proceeds with strikes against Colombia or Mexico, owing to the fact both countries’ governments are seen as legitimate and democratic.
There’s also skepticism in the region that Trump would go forward with strikes on Colombia and Mexico, given the United States’ deep economic and security relationships with both countries.
“Venezuela is a special case in the sense that it is a country very close to the U.S. with the clear presence of China, Russia, Iran in the country,” said a second Latin American official.
But the countries in Trump’s crosshairs have vastly different relationships with the American president, making any sort of unified response challenging. Some have been more successful than others at winning his favor.
Sheinbaum has earned praise from the White House and others for deftly navigating the bilateral relationship with her mercurial counterpart. She’s stepped up security cooperation with the United States, despite Trump’s continued threats.
“I think she’s a terrific person,” Trump said of Sheinbaum in Sunday remarks to reporters aboard Air Force One.
But in the case of Petro, Trump has accused the Colombian leader of being involved in cocaine trafficking. The Trump administration has long been at odds with Petro, who has been a consistent thorn in the White House’s side since the president returned to power. Petro has at various points throttled cooperation on deportations and rankled the White House after calling on U.S. servicemembers to resist U.S. support of Israel at a September protest of the war in the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has treated Cuba like a pariah, reducing cooperation on economic and security issues to the bare minimum and imposing harsh new sanctions against the island nation. And it is widely understood that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, has backed an aggressive posture toward Venezuela as a way to weaken Havana.
For the president’s boosters, the threats of military force against — and the broadly more muscular posture towards — Latin America speak to how the administration is prioritizing the region and willing to use all the tools at its disposal to achieve its aims close to home.
“We want to narrow America’s global role to our core interests … but we want to have a very expansive interpretation of our interests in the hemisphere, “ said Alex Gray, who served as National Security Council chief of staff and deputy assistant to the president during the first Trump administration.
Ari Hawkins contributed to this report.
No comments:
Post a Comment