Oil abundance "arms" Trump's hand

efsyn.gr

NORTH AMERICA

09.01.26 

The U.S. President conducts foreign policy 

based on "black gold" reserves.

"We have energy security in this country now, but it is important for future reserves to look for other places." Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, stated the above to Fox News on Thursday. This phrase perfectly fits the way U.S. President Donald Trump conducts foreign policy.

A few days ago, the Trump administration carried out a gangster-like military operation in Venezuela, seizing the country's president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife. Apparently, Trump's goal was not drugs, but control over the vast oil reserves of that country.

Indeed, Trump himself admitted that "only time will tell" how long the United States will control Venezuela and its oil reserves. When asked by the New York Times whether the period would be three months, six months, a year, or longer, Trump stated: "I would say much longer."

According to Axios, the abundance of oil (currently in the U.S.), along with the global oversupply of crude oil and low prices at gas stations, strengthens Trump's foreign policy ambitions related to U.S. foreign policy. Less dependence on imported oil, combined with a weak global market, gives the U.S. expanded foreign policy options. Consequently, if Trump wants to arrest Venezuela's leader or threaten and bomb Iran, he can do so with much less risk of increasing domestic gas station prices or causing other unpleasant economic consequences.

The U.S. Oil Peak

The United States has nearly tripled its oil production in the last 15 years, thanks to hydraulic fracturing (fracking): a technique that releases vast reserves of oil and natural gas from shale rock formations in Texas and several other states.

Thanks to shale oil, the U.S. is now – by far – the world's leading producer with almost 14-20 million barrels per day. "The shale oil revolution certainly brought a sense of confidence and security that was not present when the U.S. was the largest oil importer," said oil historian and S&P Global Vice President, Dan Yergin, in an interview.

In second place among oil-producing countries is Saudi Arabia (with very large quantities and significant potential for increased production), while Russia is third, despite sanctions against it for the war in Ukraine.

In comparison, Venezuela's production is 800,000 to 1 million barrels per day.

Obstacles to Investment in Venezuela

However, according to Axios, the same oil forces that are now encouraging Trump may complicate his vision for massive investments by American oil companies regarding the flourishing of Venezuela's production.

Companies continue to enjoy great opportunities in the U.S., as well as prospects in other parts of the world. However, moderate prices are an obstacle to investing in a country that carries risks. Even for companies seeking investments abroad, Wood Mackenzie's consulting firm's estimates for 2026 state that American producers still have opportunities in the Middle East, Latin America, and North Africa.

"Oil demand continues to rise. U.S. shale oil production remains steady," Jason Bordoff, director of Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy, told NPR. "So, companies are already looking for the next sources of investment around the world, in complex geopolitical places like Libya or Iraq."

According to analysts, while interest and risk tolerance will vary by company, overall, the largest and most experienced "players" will hesitate to invest large sums in Venezuela...