"World War Three, is just a shot away" believes the Western world

The Greek Courier

SOURCE: POLITICO POLL

A recent poll conducted by Politico reveals that a significant majority of voters in key allied nations harbor concerns about the likelihood of an impending global conflict, yet they show hesitance when it comes to making sacrifices for increased military funding.

February 13, 2026 

BRUSSELS — The Politico Poll indicates that citizens in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany perceive the world as becoming increasingly perilous. Through surveys conducted between February 6 and February 9, it was found that many believe the possibility of a third world war within the next five years is greater than ever. This sense of urgency has escalated markedly since earlier assessments by Public First in March 2025.

Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, noted, “The Western public's changing attitudes within just a year reflect a dramatic shift towards perceiving a more insecure world, where the threat of war is more pronounced and alliances are shaky.”

While there is a clear inclination to support rising defense budgets across several nations, this enthusiasm diminishes considerably when voters consider the financial implications. The poll revealed that many are opposed to increasing military spending if it requires raising taxes, borrowing more, or diverting funds from other essential services. “Our polling shows that concern about war does not equate to a mandate for heavy defense spending,” Wride explained, highlighting the dilemma facing leaders who seek to bolster military security.

The poll's findings illustrate the tightening financial landscape politicians must navigate, particularly as they gather for the Munich Security Conference. With ongoing conflicts—such as the U.S. military's actions in Iran and other regions—and the persistent war in Ukraine, voters are becoming acutely aware of global instability.

In the U.K., for instance, 43 percent of respondents perceive a new world war as “likely” or “very likely” by 2031, a notable increase from 30 percent in March 2025. Similarly, 46 percent of Americans share this view, up from 38 percent the previous year. Interestingly, only Germans, among those surveyed, believe a third world war is unlikely within the next five years.

When evaluating military engagement, Americans expressed the highest confidence in their country being involved in war soon, followed by respondents in the U.K. and France. The results suggest NATO’s nuclear states may be preparing for confrontation more than other allies, contradicting Trump's image as a peace-promoting leader.

Concerns regarding nuclear conflict loom large, with at least a third of respondents in the U.S., U.K., France, and Canada believing that nuclear weapons might be utilized in a future war.

Respondents also identified Russia as the foremost threat to European peace. In Canada, however, Trump’s America was flagged as the most significant security risk, with the U.S. seen as a secondary threat in France, Germany, and the U.K., surpassing even concerns about China.

The polling indicates a strong desire for increased defense spending in countries like France, Germany, the U.K., and Canada, particularly among respondents in the U.K. and Canada. Yet hesitation arises when respondents are asked about how to finance such increases. Support for greater military budgets drops significantly when respondents must weigh potential trade-offs like cutting other services, incurring new debt, or hiking taxes.

The French and German publics have become notably less inclined to endorse higher defense budgets if they involve realistic sacrifices compared to last year. In Germany, defense funding ranks low on the priority list, only slightly ahead of overseas aid. Support for increased military expenditure has decreased from 40 percent in France and 37 percent in Germany last year to just 28 and 24 percent this year, respectively.

Additionally, skepticism surrounds the idea of creating a unified EU army, with only 22 percent of Germans and 17 percent of French respondents expressing support for this initiative. However, mandatory military service garners more backing, particularly in Germany and France, where approximately half of those surveyed are in favor.

This edition of The Politico Poll was carried out by Public First, encompassing responses from 10,289 adults online, with at least 2,000 respondents sampled from each country. Results were weighted to ensure demographic representation, with an overall margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points for each country, recognizing that smaller subgroup analyses may have higher margins of error.

For detailed insights, refer to the full report from Politico.