4 deadlines that could shape Trump’s next 5 weeks

Trump and the GOP have a series of make-or-break moments ahead

Illustration by Claudine Hellmuth/POLITICO 

(source images via AP and iStock)

By POLITICO Staff

04/26/2026

The next five weeks could prove pivotal for President Donald Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill. They face a series of deadlines — some self-imposed — that could shape the party’s fortunes through the midterms.

Some have national security implications, while others involve domestic politics — but what they have in common is they are, by and large, out of Trump’s hands.

Here are four crucial deadlines coming up.

April 30

FISA renewal

Republicans have only a handful of legislative days to reach an agreement to extend Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, a key spy tool.

Section 702 allows the federal government to surveil the communications of foreigners abroad without a warrant. But it can also sweep up Americans’ communications, and privacy advocates argue the law should be updated to require intelligence officials to obtain a warrant before reviewing that data.

Trump demanded a clean extension of the surveillance law despite well-documented skepticism within his own party. Conservative hard-liners in the House, however, want more guardrails to prevent the warrantless surveillance of Americans.

On Thursday, House GOP leaders unveiled the text of a new three-year extension as Speaker Mike Johnson tries to overcome the ultra-conservative resistance.

The proposed reauthorization of the so-called Section 702 law includes minimal new oversight and penalties for abuses of the spy authority but stops short of warrant requirements sought by GOP hard-liners, mostly restating current law.

The faction that’s been opposing an extension has not yet signed off on the latest plan. GOP leaders plan to continue talks into the weekend to be able to proceed with consideration of the measure Monday at the House Rules Committee, the next step before hitting the floor.

Even if the House can pass this version of the Section 702 extension next week, there’s still no guarantee it will be able to clear procedural hurdles in the Senate by the deadline.

Early May

DHS runs out of money

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said this week his department will run out of money to pay employees’ salaries the first week of May, as lawmakers race to end a two-month shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security.

Appearing on “Fox and Friends” Tuesday morning, the secretary outlined that money currently being used to pay salaries during a shutdown comes from the funds Congress allocated to DHS last year via Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. But DHS has an extensive payroll burden, Mullin said, and if the department isn’t funded, that pot of money will dry up early next month.

The incredibly candid admission about DHS’ financial straits comes as Republicans are trying to put forward a package that would fund most of the agencies under the Department of Homeland Security, while punting funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection, which Democrats have demanded changes to, down the line for a budget reconciliation package.

Mullin added that almost two-thirds of the department’s workforce remains furloughed and called on Democrats to explain why they are “putting [the] homeland at risk” and urged that Democratic holdouts be “held accountable.”

Late May

Iran oil

The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has placed a deadline of sorts on the Iranians, who will have to “shut-in” their oil wells in about a month if they are not able to export crude. Once “shut in,” an oil well can’t necessarily be reopened because they risk losing pressure and productivity once closed.

For all of the attacks on energy infrastructure throughout the Middle East from all sides, the Iranians have largely been able to export their own oil for the last two months, mostly to China. The Trump administration even allowed the Iranians to sell their oil in order to ease the global shortages wreaking havoc on U.S. allies around the world.

For the next four to five weeks, the Iranians will be forced to divert their oil production into storage until they reach capacity, according to Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, specializing in the geopolitics of oil and gas with a focus on Iran. After that, the Iranians will have to shut-in their oil wells.

“The blockade would need to be aggressively enforced and sustained for at least another month before Iran has to start reducing production,” he said.

June 1

Reconciliation bill

Trump wants a reconciliation bill on his desk by June 1 that would fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Border Patrol and other agencies.

Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham unveiled a fiscal blueprint Tuesday, and the full chamber advanced its early Thursday morning.

But the resolution needs to clear the House, where some GOP lawmakers, including Budget Chair Jodey Arrington, are still dreaming of expanding the scope of the budget resolution to pave the way for a party-line bill that includes other party priorities ahead of the midterms.

Any changes to the budget resolution would punt it back to the Senate, eating up floor time and forcing more amendment votes — something Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other Republicans are eager to avoid. Thune is intent on keeping the budget resolution narrow, believing that gives them their best opportunity to quickly send a bill to Trump before the June 1 deadline he set.

Some House conservatives also want the Senate to pass the immigration funding bill before taking up bipartisan legislation that would reopen the rest of DHS. That could drag the agency’s full shutdown deep into May.