Negotiators for the US and Iran have proposed a framework aimed at extending the current ceasefire by an additional 60 days and initiating discussions regarding Iran's nuclear program, according to US sources. However, it's important to remember that both sides are still striking each other, and, although the BBC is a decent media outlet, it's wise to believe only half of what you read in this volatile situation, because the Trump administration is known as the greatest source of misinformation nowadays.
While the details of the proposed deal are emerging, it's important to note that neither government's leadership has officially approved it yet. This comes at a time of increased tension in the region, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claiming they targeted an American airbase following fresh US strikes on southern Iran. Both nations have engaged in accusations of violating the fragile ceasefire, further complicating the negotiation landscape.
Recently, Iranian state media released elements of what they referred to as an unofficial draft of a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU). The draft reportedly includes provisions such as lifting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, withdrawing US forces from the region, and reinstating non-military traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, with Iran and Oman managing the routing of vessels. This shipping lane is crucial, as it normally sees about one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas and oil.
The White House quickly dismissed the Iranian report as a "complete fabrication." Despite signals of progress made last week towards a deal, speculation abounds surrounding the feasibility of any announcement given the history of dashed hopes for resolution in this conflict.
Since the initial ceasefire was established on April 8, Trump has repeatedly suggested that both sides are nearing a deal. Yet talks that took place in Islamabad shortly thereafter resulted in no significant agreements. Recently, he reminded officials that “option B,” or a return to combat operations, remains on the table. Just last week, he revealed that he had been on the verge of ordering renewed strikes on Iran but ultimately refrained at the urging of US allies.
In a cabinet meeting, Trump mentioned that while talks were progressing, the Iranian proposal wasn’t fully developed and work still lay ahead. It remains unclear when, or if, he will ultimately approve the ceasefire extension. Doing so could facilitate more detailed discussions between US and Iranian teams, especially concerning technical issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Axios, which initially reported the tentative agreement, noted that Trump had been briefed on the proposal but had not yet signed off on it, indicating it may take a couple of days for him to make a final decision. The confirmation from US sources about the proposal, especially coming after Axios's report, is unusual, implying that the two sides might be closer to a deal than they have been during the six-week ceasefire.
Reports also suggest that should an agreement be finalized, it could enable "unrestricted" passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran given a 30-day period to remove mines from the narrow shipping channel. Additionally, the US would lift its blockade and grant sanction waivers to allow Iran to resume its oil sales.
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