July 30th, 2026
A new Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV survey of the Michigan Democratic Primary for US Senate finds Abdul El-Sayed leading Rep. Haley Stevens, 54% to 39%. Six percent are undecided. Including whom undecided voters lean toward, 57% support El-Sayed and 41% Stevens.
“There is a clear age divide in the Democratic Primary: voters under 50 break for El-Sayed by 42 percentage points, 67% to 25%, and that gap tightens among voters in their 50s to a 12-point lead, and voters over 60 flip to Stevens by a 14-point margin, 53% to 39%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Independents break for El-Sayed by a 27-point margin, 60% to 33%, while Democrats break for El-Sayed by nine points, 50% to 41%.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer holds a 62% approval rating among Democratic Primary voters, a 17-point drop since April, when it was 79%. Among Democratic primary voters who approve of Governor Whitmer, 49% support Stevens and 42% El-Sayed. Among those who disapprove, 78% support El-Sayed and 17% Stevens.
John James leads the Republican primary for Governor with 40%, followed by Perry Johnson at 32%. Seventeen percent are undecided. When including whom undecided voters lean toward, James’ support increases to 48% and Johnson’s to 33%.
President Trump holds an 80% job approval rating among Michigan Republican Primary voters, while 11% disapprove of the job he is doing.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted July 26-27, 2026. The sample of likely Democratic Primary voters (n=700) has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.7 percent. The sample of likely Republican Primary voters (n=350) has a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
In the Democratic Primary, data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web and a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web. Additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. In the Republican Primary, data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web and a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web.
All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.
“There is a clear age divide in the Democratic Primary: voters under 50 break for El-Sayed by 42 percentage points, 67% to 25%, and that gap tightens among voters in their 50s to a 12-point lead, and voters over 60 flip to Stevens by a 14-point margin, 53% to 39%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Independents break for El-Sayed by a 27-point margin, 60% to 33%, while Democrats break for El-Sayed by nine points, 50% to 41%.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer holds a 62% approval rating among Democratic Primary voters, a 17-point drop since April, when it was 79%. Among Democratic primary voters who approve of Governor Whitmer, 49% support Stevens and 42% El-Sayed. Among those who disapprove, 78% support El-Sayed and 17% Stevens.
John James leads the Republican primary for Governor with 40%, followed by Perry Johnson at 32%. Seventeen percent are undecided. When including whom undecided voters lean toward, James’ support increases to 48% and Johnson’s to 33%.
President Trump holds an 80% job approval rating among Michigan Republican Primary voters, while 11% disapprove of the job he is doing.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted July 26-27, 2026. The sample of likely Democratic Primary voters (n=700) has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.7 percent. The sample of likely Republican Primary voters (n=350) has a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
In the Democratic Primary, data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web and a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web. Additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. In the Republican Primary, data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web and a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web.
All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.
FULL RESULTS
Quick Links
Quick Links
About Us
Polls
Research
Contact
Contact +1 617-824-3491
emersonpolling@emerson.edu
@EmersonPolling
120 Boylston St
Boston MA 02116
© 2026 - Emerson College Polling
Privacy Policy
Polls
Research
Contact
Contact +1 617-824-3491
emersonpolling@emerson.edu
@EmersonPolling
120 Boylston St
Boston MA 02116
© 2026 - Emerson College Polling
Privacy Policy
No comments:
Post a Comment