No alternative

July 10, 2026

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George Kapopoulos

If the US could, it would have overthrown by now the Islamic regime in Tehran and strengthened separatist minority nationalisms as a battering ram against the central government. But it couldn't.

Therefore, any attempt to control the Strait of Hormuz is like playing with fire, as Tehran believes that for a year now it has sent a clear message to Washington about its resilience in a prolonged war of attrition, which at any moment could trigger a global energy and economic crisis.

Trump is well aware that there is no alternative policy for the US other than a compromise with Iran, with the essence of the problem being the communication management of the de-escalation of the conflict. Trump canceled Obama's agreement with Tehran only to end up today having accepted demands from the Iranian side that his predecessor had rejected.

Trump knows very well that the day after the signing of a comprehensive agreement with Iran, there will be a widespread questioning of US credibility on the Arabian Peninsula. Almost simultaneously with Obama's rapprochement with Iran, a strategic crisis of trust began to emerge between the US on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and its allies on the other.

The US was pressuring Riyadh to increase oil production to push prices down and reduce Moscow's oil revenues. Despite US pressure, Saudi Arabia not only did not comply but approached Russia. Thus, the US-Iran rapprochement coincided with the Riyadh-Moscow rapprochement. 

A reminder: The US-Saudi Arabia alliance, signed in February 1945 by Roosevelt and Ibn Saud, was summarized in the phrase "Oil for Security." The attack against Iran mortgages the close special relationship that the US established eighty years ago and today struggles to preserve, trapped in a self-fulfilling prophecy. The special relationship was signed immediately after Yalta, with Roosevelt traveling directly to an American warship in the Red Sea.

The US realizes that it cannot apply the recipe it chose in Iraq and Syria to Iran and is trying to brand a compromise as an unconditional surrender. The demonization of Iran after 1979 prevented the US from understanding that half a century later, they are facing a different country.