Aug 4, 2026 9:51 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — Michigan voters will decide a competitive Democratic U.S. Senate primary Tuesday in a contest that not only has implications for control of the chamber next year but will also test the growing clout of the party's progressive wing as well as that of a powerful pro-Israel organization.
READ MORE: 4 questions about the high-stakes Michigan Democratic primary
The state is one of the nation's most competitive electoral battlegrounds, as the last three presidential elections firmly established. In 2026, in addition to the pivotal U.S. Senate contest, Michigan will host fiercely contested races for governor, U.S. House and the state Legislature.
Progressives scored high-profile victories in the past year with the election of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as New York City's mayor and several U.S. House primaries where progressive candidates defeated longtime Democratic incumbents. While those contests all were waged on safe, heavily Democratic turf, the race to replace Democratic U.S. Sen. Gary Peters is expected to be a marquee matchup in the November general election, raising the stakes of Tuesday's Democratic primary between U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens and former Detroit public health official Abdul El-Sayed.
Stevens has endorsements from much of the state's Democratic establishment, including Peters, term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, former U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow and state Attorney General Dana Nessel. Her notable out-of-state backers include Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and South Carolina U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, who recently campaigned with Stevens in heavily Democratic Detroit.
READ MORE: Fact-checking Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens' claims ahead of the Michigan Democratic Senate primary
El-Sayed has endorsements from prominent progressive leaders including U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and U.S. Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan.
While El-Sayed has outraised Stevens in the campaign overall, including more than doubling her fundraising haul in the first two weeks of July, the two were on roughly even footing in terms of available cash heading into the final stretch of the primary season. But Stevens has benefitted from heavy spending by outside groups, including a committee affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
The group, the United Democracy Project, has spent more than $30 million since June in support of Stevens and against El-Sayed, according to Federal Election Commission records. AIPAC's political operation has been active in supporting pro-Israel candidates in primaries this year, but its sizable investment in the Michigan U.S. Senate primary marks a dramatic escalation in the group's willingness to engage in a single contest.
READ MORE: What to watch in the Aug. 4 primaries in Michigan and beyond
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow's July withdrawal from the primary has not added much clarity to the race. She has not endorsed either remaining candidate, and both campaigns are vying for her former supporters. Her name remains on the ballot.
The winner will face former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who is unopposed for the Republican nomination. Rogers ran for the state's other U.S. Senate seat in 2024 but narrowly lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.
Wayne County, home to Detroit, is the state's most populous county and is a major source of votes in statewide Democratic primaries. Oakland and Macomb counties in the Detroit suburbs and Grand Rapids-based Kent County are key state battlegrounds in both primaries and general elections. Washtenaw County, home of the college town of Ann Arbor where El-Sayed has taught, is heavily Democratic and wields more influence in Democratic primaries than in Republican ones.
READ MORE: 4 questions about the high-stakes Michigan Democratic primary
In previous establishment-vs.-progressive statewide Democratic primaries, the progressive candidates tend to post their strongest numbers in Washtenaw and Kent counties, regardless of the statewide outcome. Sanders carried both counties decisively in his narrow win over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential primary and placed a close second in both in his 17-point primary loss to Joe Biden in 2020.
Wayne County has the state's highest share of Black residents, at about 37%, according to the U.S. Census. About 8% of Wayne County residents are of Arabic, Middle Eastern or North African descent, the highest share of any county in the nation.
In the 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, Wayne delivered for the establishment candidates. Sanders carried almost every county in 2016, but Clinton still almost won based largely on the strength of her showing in Wayne County.
In the race for governor, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Republican U.S. Rep. John James are the front-runners in their primaries. Benson faces Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, while James' lone remaining opponent is wealthy businessman and former 2024 presidential candidate Perry Johnson.
A handful of Michigan congressional districts could decide control of the U.S. House. Among the most competitive is the 7th District which includes Lansing, the state capital. The three-way Democratic primary features former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, community organizer William Lawrence and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam. The winner will face freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Barrett.
Competitive primaries are also underway to replace James in the 10th District and Stevens in the 11th District.
In the heavily Democratic 13th District anchored by Detroit, Shri Thanedar faces a tough primary challenge from state Rep. Donavan McKinney, who's won endorsements from El-Sayed, Sanders, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, Tlaib in the neighboring 12th Congressional District and several other of Thanedar's progressive U.S. House colleagues.
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied.
READ MORE: 4 questions about the high-stakes Michigan Democratic primary
The state is one of the nation's most competitive electoral battlegrounds, as the last three presidential elections firmly established. In 2026, in addition to the pivotal U.S. Senate contest, Michigan will host fiercely contested races for governor, U.S. House and the state Legislature.
Progressives scored high-profile victories in the past year with the election of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as New York City's mayor and several U.S. House primaries where progressive candidates defeated longtime Democratic incumbents. While those contests all were waged on safe, heavily Democratic turf, the race to replace Democratic U.S. Sen. Gary Peters is expected to be a marquee matchup in the November general election, raising the stakes of Tuesday's Democratic primary between U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens and former Detroit public health official Abdul El-Sayed.
Stevens has endorsements from much of the state's Democratic establishment, including Peters, term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, former U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow and state Attorney General Dana Nessel. Her notable out-of-state backers include Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and South Carolina U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, who recently campaigned with Stevens in heavily Democratic Detroit.
READ MORE: Fact-checking Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens' claims ahead of the Michigan Democratic Senate primary
El-Sayed has endorsements from prominent progressive leaders including U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and U.S. Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan.
While El-Sayed has outraised Stevens in the campaign overall, including more than doubling her fundraising haul in the first two weeks of July, the two were on roughly even footing in terms of available cash heading into the final stretch of the primary season. But Stevens has benefitted from heavy spending by outside groups, including a committee affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
The group, the United Democracy Project, has spent more than $30 million since June in support of Stevens and against El-Sayed, according to Federal Election Commission records. AIPAC's political operation has been active in supporting pro-Israel candidates in primaries this year, but its sizable investment in the Michigan U.S. Senate primary marks a dramatic escalation in the group's willingness to engage in a single contest.
READ MORE: What to watch in the Aug. 4 primaries in Michigan and beyond
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow's July withdrawal from the primary has not added much clarity to the race. She has not endorsed either remaining candidate, and both campaigns are vying for her former supporters. Her name remains on the ballot.
The winner will face former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who is unopposed for the Republican nomination. Rogers ran for the state's other U.S. Senate seat in 2024 but narrowly lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.
Wayne County, home to Detroit, is the state's most populous county and is a major source of votes in statewide Democratic primaries. Oakland and Macomb counties in the Detroit suburbs and Grand Rapids-based Kent County are key state battlegrounds in both primaries and general elections. Washtenaw County, home of the college town of Ann Arbor where El-Sayed has taught, is heavily Democratic and wields more influence in Democratic primaries than in Republican ones.
READ MORE: 4 questions about the high-stakes Michigan Democratic primary
In previous establishment-vs.-progressive statewide Democratic primaries, the progressive candidates tend to post their strongest numbers in Washtenaw and Kent counties, regardless of the statewide outcome. Sanders carried both counties decisively in his narrow win over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential primary and placed a close second in both in his 17-point primary loss to Joe Biden in 2020.
Wayne County has the state's highest share of Black residents, at about 37%, according to the U.S. Census. About 8% of Wayne County residents are of Arabic, Middle Eastern or North African descent, the highest share of any county in the nation.
In the 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, Wayne delivered for the establishment candidates. Sanders carried almost every county in 2016, but Clinton still almost won based largely on the strength of her showing in Wayne County.
In the race for governor, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Republican U.S. Rep. John James are the front-runners in their primaries. Benson faces Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, while James' lone remaining opponent is wealthy businessman and former 2024 presidential candidate Perry Johnson.
A handful of Michigan congressional districts could decide control of the U.S. House. Among the most competitive is the 7th District which includes Lansing, the state capital. The three-way Democratic primary features former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, community organizer William Lawrence and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam. The winner will face freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Barrett.
Competitive primaries are also underway to replace James in the 10th District and Stevens in the 11th District.
In the heavily Democratic 13th District anchored by Detroit, Shri Thanedar faces a tough primary challenge from state Rep. Donavan McKinney, who's won endorsements from El-Sayed, Sanders, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, Tlaib in the neighboring 12th Congressional District and several other of Thanedar's progressive U.S. House colleagues.
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied.
Follow live results for Tuesday's primaries
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