Alberta Separatism Faces a Reality Check: 70% Want to Remain in Canada, Ipsos Poll Finds

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Edited by Yiannis Damellos and Mars Strangelove Jr.

Source: Global News, reporting by Rachel Morgan, October 18, 2026;

Ipsos survey conducted October 13–16.

Seven in 10 Albertans intend to vote for their province to remain part of Canada, while fewer than one in four support beginning the legal process for a binding separation referendum, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News.

The survey, published Sunday, October 18, found that 70 per cent of respondents planned to vote for Alberta to remain a Canadian province, unchanged from September polling. Support for proceeding toward a binding separation vote stood at 23 per cent, up three percentage points from the previous survey.

The findings arrive one day before Albertans vote in a referendum covering 10 questions, including nine concerning immigration and constitutional issues.

In fact, Monday's ballot does not ask Albertans to vote directly on independence. Instead, the separation-related question concerns whether to initiate the legal process for a future binding referendum.

Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada, told Global News that support for separation remained concentrated among particular demographic groups. Support for proceeding toward a binding vote was highest among men, respondents aged 35 to 54, and residents living outside Calgary and Edmonton.

Five per cent of those surveyed remained undecided, while two per cent said they would not vote. Bricker said that even if all those respondents ultimately supported the separation-related question, their votes would not be enough to change the overall picture indicated by the poll.

The survey was based on online interviews with 801 Albertans conducted between October 13 and 16. Ipsos reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for the overall sample, 19 times out of 20. As with other surveys, the results are subject to potential sampling and other sources of error.


A wider political dispute

Although support for separation remains a minority position in the poll, the results do not mean that Albertans are satisfied with the current relationship between the province and Ottawa.

Bricker told Global News that dissatisfaction with the status quo was evident, but that many respondents did not see independence as the solution. He also suggested that some of the other nine referendum questions could attract majority support.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has encouraged voters to support the first nine questions, arguing that the results could strengthen her government's position in negotiations with the federal government. She has also said that the outcome should be accepted.

Leaders of the independence movement have disputed the suggestion that the matter should simply be put aside if their preferred outcome fails to materialize.

The distinction between dissatisfaction with Ottawa and support for leaving Canada is central to interpreting the poll. A voter may favour changes to immigration policy, constitutional arrangements or federal-provincial relations without supporting separation.

For the federal government, the immediate issue is therefore not simply whether Alberta remains in Canada. It is also whether the referendum strengthens demands for changes to the federation and how Ottawa responds to them.

Monday's vote will provide a clearer indication of how Albertans view those competing questions. The Ipsos findings suggest that, at least on the prospect of initiating a binding separation vote, support remains well below a majority.