Key Facts
- Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads former Rep. Mike Rogers 53% to 42% in the Times/Siena poll (updated Nov. 2).
- Kansas: Democratic Rev. Adam Hamilton is ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44% in the New York Times/Siena survey (updated Nov. 2).
- Texas: Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 43% in the Times/Siena poll (updated Nov. 2).
- Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson is up 51% to 45% over Republican Sen. Susan Collins (updated Nov. 2).
- Ohio: Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads GOP Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 44% (updated Nov. 2).
- Alaska: Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 48% to 46% (updated Nov. 2).
- Iowa: Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek is ahead 48% to 47% over Republican Ashley Hinson (updated Nov. 2).
- Nebraska: The race between Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn is locked in a 49%-49% tie, YouGov found (updated Nov. 1).
- New Hampshire: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leads his Republican opponent, former Sen. John Sununu 48% to 41% in a University of Massachusetts Lowell survey (updated Oct. 29).
- Minnesota: Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leads Republican former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya 54% to 40% in a New York Times/Siena poll (updated Oct. 28).
- Florida: Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon trails Republican Sen. Ashley Moody 50% to 44% in a New York Times/Siena poll (updated Oct. 28).
- South Carolina: Republican Sen. Darline Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, is tied with her Democratic opponent, Dr. Annie Andrews, both with 48% in the Times/Siena survey, while Graham is ahead 43% to 39% in a survey by The Citadel (updated Oct. 28).
- Georgia: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is ahead of Republican Rep. Mike Collins 48% to 40% in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey (updated Oct. 21).
- North Carolina: Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is up 52% to 39%, over former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley in an Elon University poll (updated Oct. 20).
Which Party Will Win The House?
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows Democrats are ahead by 8.9 points as of Monday, 51.5% to 42.6%, up from 6.7 points, 48.3% to 41.6%, as of Sept. 1. Kalshi betting odds show Democrats have a 93.9% chance of winning the House as of Monday.
Forbes Readers Predict Key Races
Despite close polling, the ForbesPredict market for Texas’ Senate race placed Talarico’s odds of winning at 82% as of Sunday, based on sentiment from readers making picks in the race. That represents a 17 percentage point swing in Talarico’s favor since he opened with 65% odds upon the market’s Oct. 21 debut. El-Sayed has seen an even bigger swing in his favor for the Michigan contest, with his 74% odds Sunday marking a 25-point swing compared with his 49% odds on Oct. 21. ForbesPredict shows 84% odds for Democrats winning the Senate, and 83% odds for the party taking control of the House. Odds have also swung sharply toward Trump issuing a new mail-in voting order after the election: ForbesPredict odds on Saturday morning showed a 76% chance of that happening, a 19-point swing from the 57% odds just 24 hours earlier.
Forbes readers can make their midterm picks for these and other contests using ForbesPredict.
What do polls on California’s billionaire tax indicate?
Proposition 40, which would impose a one-time tax on the roughly 260 California billionaires equal to 5% of their wealth, appears to be a toss-up, though significant shares of voters are undecided. A Politico survey released Oct. 19 by the nonpartisan University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research found 46% support Proposition 40 and 43% are against it. An NBC/Telemundo poll taken by the nonpartisan firm Mason-Dixon Polling & Research and released Sept. 30 found 48% of respondents support the tax, 38% oppose it and 14% are undecided. The University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, also considered nonpartisan, found 45% support Proposition 40 and 42% oppose it in a survey released Sept. 25. Conservative-leaning organizations found more opposition. A poll released Friday from GOP-aligned pollster McLaughlin & Associates for the California Post found 53% oppose the tax, compared to 35% who support it, while 12% are undecided. A survey released Oct. 9 from the conservative think tank, the Manhattan Institute, found 50% of voters oppose the measure, 35% support it and 15% are undecided.
Big Number
38%. That’s Trump’s approval rating in the Silver Bulletin polling average, amid a string of surveys in recent months showing his approval rating at record lows amid growing fatigue with the Iran war and its impact on the economy. While Trump’s rating is low compared to most modern presidents at this point in their terms, the president’s party historically performs poorly in midterms elections, due to a combination of factors including low turnout in a non-presidential election year and motivation among voters who view the midterms as a referendum on the president’s agenda.
Key Background
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The party won back control in 2024, flipping West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana, after four years in the minority. A split Congress or one that’s fully in Democrats’ control could significantly hamstring Trump’s agenda, though he’s circumvented Congress to enact some of his most controversial priorities, including mass immigration raids, the Iran war and reconstruction of the Capitol and surrounding areas. Democrats are also gearing up to launch numerous investigations into Trump and his allies if they regain control of one or both chambers, indicating they could launch probes focused on whether Trump and his family have used the presidency to enrich themselves personally, his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, his so-called Capital “vanity projects,” Elon Musk and more.
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