Stop This Mockery! Without Europe, Trump's Midterm Defeat Can Only Help Moscow and Hurt Ukraine

By Yiannis Damellos

November 10, 2026

ABU DHABI - This weak, pro-Russian American delegation, comprised of Trump's cronies and relatives, cannot negotiate a secure future for Ukraine by sidelining the countries that will have to defend Europe's security long after the cameras leave Abu Dhabi. Europe's voice is not optional, particularly after the results of the American Midterms. It is indispensable.

Trump enters the final two years of his presidency politically weakened, having lost control of both chambers of Congress. He cannot even rely on his own party to control the legislative agenda anymore. While he remains in the White House, his ability to claim a domestic political mandate for his foreign policy has suffered a serious blow. And that uncertainty creates an opening for Putin. A divided and politically weakened Washington gives Moscow additional leverage to pursue a settlement more favourable to Russian interests, while attempting to exploit differences between the United States and its European allies.

This is precisely why Europe cannot afford to remain a spectator in Abu Dhabi. The future of Ukraine is inseparable from the future of European security. European governments will have to finance, defend and sustain whatever settlement eventually emerges. They cannot be expected to accept responsibility for an agreement they had little part in negotiating.

Yet, there is a fundamental problem with the American approach to the negotiations in Abu Dhabi: Washington appears to be treating European participation as something that can be arranged later, once the principal players have made sufficient progress. But European security is not an appendix to the war in Ukraine, and European governments cannot be expected to underwrite an agreement they had no meaningful role in shaping.

The European position is considerably clearer than the diplomatic manoeuvring surrounding the American initiative. On November 10, representatives of the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, NATO, Ukraine and the United States met in Abu Dhabi to coordinate their approach. Their joint statement reaffirmed three essential principles: Ukraine's sovereignty, its territorial integrity and its right to make its own decisions. They also insisted on credible security guarantees and a strong NATO as the foundation of European collective defence.

That is the starting point. Not territorial concessions negotiated over Ukraine's head. Not a new security architecture designed through private conversations between Washington and Moscow. And certainly not an arrangement that leaves European governments responsible for managing the consequences of decisions made elsewhere.

The distinction between European participation and European consultation is particularly important. European officials may be present in Abu Dhabi, but the trilateral negotiations with Russia remain a separate American-mediated process involving Moscow and Kyiv. Being briefed is not the same as having a seat at the negotiating table. And being invited to endorse an agreement after its principal terms have been decided is not diplomacy based on equal partnership.

Europe has substantial leverage. It provides financial assistance, military equipment, training, economic support and the political framework through which Ukraine hopes to pursue European integration. The EU has also mobilised billions of euros in military assistance, while European governments continue to carry responsibilities that will not disappear when the negotiations conclude.

More importantly, Europe will have to live with the consequences of any settlement. It will be responsible for much of the reconstruction, the economic relationship with Ukraine, the protection of its eastern borders and the security arrangements necessary to discourage another Russian invasion. Washington may broker an agreement, but it cannot outsource Europe's geographical reality or its long-term security responsibilities.

This is precisely why the European position cannot be reduced to a supporting role in an American diplomatic initiative. A weak or inconsistent American commitment, combined with European exclusion, risks producing an arrangement that Russia can exploit. Moscow would have every incentive to seek concessions from Washington while testing the divisions between European capitals. The result could be a settlement that pauses the fighting without resolving the security problem that produced it.

There is also a question of credibility. What value would security guarantees have if the governments expected to help enforce them were excluded from their design? Who would provide the military resources, financial commitments and political determination necessary to make those guarantees meaningful? And what happens if the next American administration decides that the agreement is no longer a priority?

Europe cannot afford to build its security around the changing preferences of the White House.

The European Union and its partners must therefore insist on a meaningful role in every stage of the negotiations. They must coordinate their positions, maintain support for Ukraine, preserve the pressure necessary to discourage further Russian aggression and make clear that no settlement affecting European security can be considered durable without European participation.

This is not an argument against American involvement. It is an argument against the assumption that American involvement alone is sufficient. The United States remains an important diplomatic and military partner, but its influence cannot substitute for the collective political, economic and security commitments of Europe.

The Abu Dhabi negotiations should establish one principle before anything else: Ukraine's future cannot be separated from Europe's security, and Europe's security cannot be negotiated without Europe.

Without Europe, Washington risks delivering precisely the outcome it says it wants to prevent: a Russia rewarded by Western divisions, a Ukraine left vulnerable, and a European continent facing another round of insecurity.