By Mike Scott, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
They were lively at first. Giddy, even. After more than 18 months of nearly wall-to-wall campaign coverage, the network and cable news talking heads on Tuesday (Nov. 8) saw the light at the end of the tunnel. The marathon 2016 presidential season was almost in the books, and -- regardless of their own thinly veiled political leanings -- they knew exactly how the night was supposed to end. The polls were clear about that.
It didn't take long, however, for them to realize that election night 2016 wasn't going to be the early, easy night for which they had been hoping. It also didn't take them long to realize that -- as was the case in Britain's so-called Brexit vote earlier this year -- absolutely nothing they thought had been certain was anything remotely resembling certain.
The so-called experts, it turns out, didn't know nearly as much as everyone thought. And that included the experts themselves.
The initial hint of that uncomfortable truth first dawned relatively early on election night. It arrived right about the time they learned Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump were embroiled in a much closer race in electoral-vote-rich Florida than anybody had expected, and with Trump apparently in the driver's seat, no less.
"There's no other word for it," MSNBC's Chris Matthews said Tuesday night as election returns rolled in. "This is a surprise."
Soon after, or perhaps closer to simultaneously, the previous prevailing election night giddiness on channels across the dial -- from MSNBC to Fox News to CNN to CBS -- melted away as Trump piled up victories in state after state. Replacing it: a sort of stunned sobriety.
A race that was supposed to be historic for installing the country's first female president and protecting the legacy of President Barack Obama was looking as if it just might be historic for other reasons.
Trump, a political first-timer who ran an intensely polarizing outsider campaign -- fueled by populist discontent with the nation's political establishment and a promise to, among other things, build a wall along the country's southern border -- just might pull off the impossible. The late-night punchline was within striking distance of becoming the president of the United States of America.
"We knew at the beginning of this evening, we have known for two months, this was a deeply divided nation," CBS News' Bob Schieffer said shortly after 8:30 p.m. CT as uncertainty reigned. "What we've found out so far tonight is we were right about that. Maybe we didn't understand how divided we really were."
About 30 minutes later, and with that new reality still setting in, longtime Democratic operative and Clinton adviser James Carville begrudgingly admitted on MSNBC that the race wasn't going to be a Clinton cakewalk after all. "I would say to Democrats, don't tune out yet," Carville said shortly before 9 p.m. CT.
Translation: It was going to be a bumpy ride. And it was. It was also going to be a longer night than anyone outside of Trump Tower had predicted.
Even Trump himself had to scramble to prepare a victory speech, according to GOP strategist Nicolle Wallace, the former communications chief for President George W. Bush and one of the more insightful voices on MSNBC throughout the 2016 campaign season, including on Tuesday night.
Financial markets went on a wild ride Wednesday, as Wall Street index futures and Asian stock benchmarks tumbled on the rising possibility of a Trump presidency.
What had started as a day marked by a lot of on-air certainty of a Clinton victory, a lot of self-assured stating of the seemingly obvious -- and then re-stating of it -- had transformed into one of hand-wringing, shoulder-shrugging and head-scratching.
"It was Donald Trump versus almost all the experts. And as of right now, it looks like Donald Trump was right," CNN's Jake Tapper said heading into the 10 o'clock hour as Clinton's previously favorable path to victory continued to narrow perilously.
As the night wore on, and as more states turned Trump -- and as the Dow Futures plunged upon news of his mounting election night successes -- it became obvious that the only thing anyone could be reasonably sure of was that nobody had a right to be sure of anything anymore. That was especially true of the now suddenly exposed pundits.
"I wasn't covering politics in 2000," Fox News' Chris Wallace said. "I always regretted that I (wasn't). This could be our 2000. This could be one of these elections that takes on a life of its own on election night and is just an inflection moment in the history of this country.
He then added: "We don't know."
HISTORICAL PERSEPCTIVE: TV's talking heads were by no means the only ones surprised by Tuesday's returns. Nearly everyone was, including presidential historian Douglas Brinkley.
Appearing live on "The Daily Show" as the election results were still unfolding, Brinkley was asked by host Trevor Noah if there was any recent historical comparison for what was shaping up to be an epic election night shocker. Brinkley came up empty.
"Nothing in recent historical memory that is as shocking as this," Brinkley said. "You have to go back to Truman versus Dewey in 1948, when people thought for sure Dewy had won. I'm stunned. All the polls were wrong. Everybody had guessed this wrong. It looks like Donald Trump has won, and there's really nothing like it that we can compare it to."
HOLLYWOOD PERSPECTIVE: As he has proven wont to do, MSNBC host and movie buff Chris Matthews engaged in a touch of Hollywood philosophizing in reaction to Trump's surprising finish.
"I was thinking of the movies," Matthews said. "I was thinking of (screenwriter) Jeremy Larner's line in 'The Candidate': 'What do we do now?'"
Later in the night, Matthews -- a onetime chief of staff for former Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill -- struck a more literary tone, and an upbeat one at that.
"I'm taking the Faulknarian position that we will not only endure, we will prevail," Matthews said. "I just accept it. That's how I survive. We will make it. We will make it, even with Trump."
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