The survey comes on the heels of a poll published Monday by the Vancouver-based Angus Reid Institute that also has the Liberals at 42%, with the Conservatives at 37%. Support for Carney’s Liberals in the Angus Reid poll has doubled since December.
If those numbers were to hold in a national vote, the most probable outcome would be a majority of seats for the Liberals in the House of Commons.
It’s a stunning turnaround for a party that seemed left for dead only a few months ago. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland changed everything by quitting on Dec. 16 in a public spat with Trudeau. That month, one Angus Reid poll had the Liberals down to 16% support — and nearly 30 points behind the Conservatives.
Freeland’s shocking departure forced Trudeau to announce his resignation in January and a Liberal leadership race ensued. Carney, who was governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England but had never run for political office, built early momentum and trounced Freeland and two other candidates, winning more than 85% of votes in the party contest.
“Mark Carney himself, his economic background, his pedigree, is really helping him with Canadians who are now looking for someone to try to shore up Canada’s economy against what is happening, trying to stand up to Donald Trump,” said Sebastien Dallaire, executive vice president with Leger, whose poll was sponsored by the National Post, a Canadian newspaper.
“He is the right person at the right time, in many ways.” Carney has a sizable advantage over Poilievre among older voters and female voters, according to the Leger data.
Trump’s attacks on Canada — his threats to use tariffs to cause economic damage and his repeated comments that he believes it should be the 51st US state — are weighting heavily on the national mood.
The Leger and Angus Reid polls both give Carney a substantial edge on the questions of who is best to handle economic matters and to deal with the Canada-US relationship. In the Leger survey, 45% say the Liberal leader is the best choice to grow the economy, compared with 31% for Poilievre. Carney also holds a 42% to 29% edge when asked who would be best to manage Canada’s relationship with the US and Trump.
But there is still a lot of risk ahead for Carney. Despite his profile in the world of finance and economics, he isn’t well-known yet by Canadians — and Dallaire said the Conservatives and the other parties have “a chance to define him.”
When Trump said in a Fox News interview on Tuesday that “I think it’s easier to deal actually with a Liberal,” Conservatives were quick to amplify the president’s comment.
“He knows that Canada is weaker and more vulnerable after 10 years of deep Liberal damage to our economy and national security,” Jason Kenney, the former Conservative premier of Alberta, posted on X. Trudeau was in power for nine years and four months before leaving office on March 14.
Canadian political history includes two other instances in the past several decades in which leaders took over unpopular governing parties and enjoyed a quick bump in polls. One was John Turner, a Liberal who succeeded Pierre Trudeau as prime minister in 1984. The other was Kim Campbell, a Conservative who replaced Brian Mulroney in 1993. Neither was able to sustain their early rush of popularity, and each suffered a heavy election defeat within months of taking office.
“What we don’t know yet is how will he perform during a full electoral campaign under the spotlights every day with a lot of pressure,” Dallaire said of Carney. The current political environment is “extremely volatile,” he added.
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