In a dramatic shift of events, recent polls reveal a clear Liberal lead in Canada's political landscape as the federal election looms closer. Following this, political experts, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford's campaign manager, cautioned Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre about the urgent need to address Canadians' concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump's economic actions. Poilievre's party has also urged him to act swiftly, but the question remains: Can he truly change the course of events?
First came the Polls
As of last Sunday, the polling aggregator 338Canada showed the Liberal Party at 39 percent, the Conservative Party at 37 percent, and the New Democratic Party at 11 percent. Three recent polls also show that the Mark Carney-led Liberals have overtaken the Conservatives. The Poilievre party had led by double-digit numbers for more than a year until Justin Trudeau’s sudden exit, the return of Mr. Trump to the White House, and the naming of the former central banker as Liberal leader.
A CityNews-Léger poll of 1,504 Canadians from March 10 to 13 showed the Liberal Party at 40 percent and the Conservative Party at 37 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.49 percentage points.
Another survey of 1,500 Canadians by Liaison Strategies from March 17 to 19 found the Liberal Party at 40 percent and the Conservatives at 36 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.
Furthermore, an Ipsos poll of 1,000 Canadians from March 14 to 17 indicated Carney holding a significant advantage over Poilievre by at least 10 percentage points on issues related to handling Trump. This includes being seen as a "tough negotiator," standing up to Trump's demands and uniting Canadians on necessary changes and investments to reduce dependence on the U.S. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Contrastingly, only an Abacus Data survey of 1,700 Canadian adults conducted from March 10 to 12 revealed a 38 percent lead for the Conservative Party over the Liberal Party's 34 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
Also, in terms of overall approval ratings, Carney surpasses Poilievre with the sole higher approval than disapproval rate among Canadian leaders. Carney holds a 48 percent approval rating and 30 percent disapproval, while Poilievre's approval rating stands at 35 percent, with disapproval at 52 percent.
Then came the Xperts
Kory Teneycke, who oversaw Mr. Ford’s three back-to-back majority government wins, bluntly told an Empire Club of Canada discussion about the election Wednesday evening that alarm bells should be ringing loudly in the Poilievre campaign.
In Ontario’s February election, Mr. Ford was laser-focused on Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, seeking a mandate to stand up to the U.S. President.
“You got to get on that issue,” Mr. Teneycke said. “And you know, you might not totally win, but you can’t lose by 20 points on it. You can’t get blown away on it.”
He later added: “If they don’t get on it, and get on it quick, they are going to get obliterated.”
Ontario, the pivotal battleground province
Vote-rich Ontario stands as the pivotal battleground province, often determining the government's fate. Internal Progressive Conservative polling, disclosed to The Globe by Mr. Teneycke, reveals a notable lead for the federal Liberals in Ontario, with 48 percent compared to 33 percent for the Conservatives and 11 percent for the New Democrats.
Mr. Teneycke emphasized the impact of Mr. Trump's impending 25-percent tariffs on the global auto industry, particularly hitting Ontario, along with anticipated retaliatory U.S. tariffs on Canada.
Describing tariffs as Poilievre's crucial campaign issue, Mr. Teneycke likened the Conservative Leader to Trump, citing similarities in rhetoric and campaign slogans.
Responding to comparisons during a campaign stop in Coquitlam, B.C., Poilievre positioned himself as the candidate willing to confront the U.S. President, asserting a Conservative government's readiness to stand firm against American interests.
Addressing declining poll numbers for the Conservatives, Poilievre deferred to the electorate's decision on election day regarding the Liberals' performance in managing rising costs, crime, and economic challenges.
Throughout his campaign, Poilievre has focused on critiquing the previous Trudeau administration, unveiling tax policies, and pledging to counter Trump with reciprocal tariffs. He has also targeted the World Economic Forum and the Century Initiative, drawing support by promising to defund the CBC and opposing certain immigration advocacy groups.
Amidst campaign strategies, Mr. Teneycke stressed the importance of framing the election narrative effectively. Notably, Poilievre's recent contact with Progressive Conservative Premier Ford did not involve seeking campaign assistance, as Ford remains neutral in endorsing federal parties.
No comments:
Post a Comment