"You Can't Bully a Supply-Chain Power: Zakaria on Washington's Misjudgment of China's Leverage"

Edited by Yiannis Damellos

In a recent article for The Washington Post, CNN host Fareed Zakaria argues that the U.S. government has fundamentally misunderstood China's economic leverage, ultimately making the U.S. more vulnerable. He points out that the tariffs imposed by the U.S. will primarily harm American consumers rather than China. Economist Dean Baker predicts a slowdown in U.S. growth from 2.8% to 1.4%, while China's growth is expected to remain stable.

Zakaria emphasizes that the modern global economy is complex and interdependent, limiting U.S. power. He cites scholars Henry Farrell and Abraham L. Newman, who note that while economic interdependence can be weaponized, the U.S. faces real limits in its ability to exert coercive pressure. Although Washington has successfully used economic dominance to impose sanctions on nations like Iran and North Korea, this strategy is not without its costs.

He further explains that trade differs significantly from finance. While the U.S. has leveraged its financial systems to punish adversaries, countries like China have alternatives. For example, when the U.S. restricted ethane exports to China, Beijing simply turned to other fuel sources. China, as the world's largest goods exporter, plays a crucial role in global supply chains, especially in critical materials essential for technology and defense.

Zakaria notes that China has been reducing its reliance on U.S. imports and strengthening its economic ties with other nations. U.S. sanctions have surged over the past two decades, but current strategies, including tariffs and non-trade measures like visa revocations, mark a troubling escalation.

In conclusion, Zakaria argues that the U.S. trade war exemplifies a misapplication of hard power in areas where it lacks clear advantages. This approach disrupts markets, damages alliances, and encourages nations to seek alternatives to U.S.-led systems. Ultimately, the aggressive use of hard power threatens to erode America's soft power and global influence.