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NEWSROOM / January 11, 2026
Donald Trump is receiving warnings from Iranians that if he does not act immediately to fulfill his promise to help protesters under fire from security forces in Iran, it will be too late. At the same time, the US President is also receiving conflicting advice regarding the potential effectiveness of an American intervention.
A large-scale intervention from Washington, some warn, could pour oil on the fire, reinforcing the Iranian government's narrative that the protests are manipulated as part of an anti-Islamic plan led by the US and Israel, writes The Guardian.
Trump has promised to "strike Iran" if Iranian security forces attack protesters; however, analysts estimate that the speed with which the crisis is unfolding means his team does not have a ready response. No significant movement of US military forces has been recorded, while many of the US's closest allies in the Middle East, such as Qatar, are calling for restraint.
Military options and other contingencies are being presented to the unpredictable president, according to the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, spoke on Saturday with Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
The population density of Tehran – home to approximately 12 million Iranians – makes it extremely difficult to conduct a targeted air campaign without the risk of significant civilian casualties, as demonstrated by the US-Israeli attack in June. More than 1,000 Iranians lost their lives then, which created a new wave of nationalism that now appears to have faded.
Obvious potential US targets – top officials of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – have enhanced their personal security measures. However, Revolutionary Guard bases in the southern part of Tehran and police camps are considered more feasible targets.
Over the weekend, Iranian opposition leaders pressured Washington, arguing that the extent of the regime's violence constitutes a crime against humanity. One group warned that protesters could likely endure two more days at the current level of police and military violence.
In a letter, seven Iranian political, social, and cultural figures called on Trump to recognize the scale of the ongoing repression. The letter was signed by Javad Akbarian, religious scholar and journalist, Nazanin Ansari, director of the Kayhan newspaper in London, Fouad Pashei, secretary-general of the Constitutional Party of Iran, Yazdan Shohadaei, spokesperson for the Transitional Council, Shirin Ebadi, lawyer and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, author and director Mohsen Makhmalbaf, and Abdullah Mohtadi, secretary-general of Iran's Kurdish Komala party.
They pointed out that Trump has repeatedly promised to intervene and warned that "every minute of delay will broaden the dimensions of the crime against the defenseless people of Iran." The son of former Shah Reza Pahlavi, who claims to exert some influence over the protests, also appealed to Trump to act. However, he tempered his advice to protesters, emphasizing self-protection: "Go out into the main streets of cities in groups with friends and relatives; en route, do not stray from each other or from the crowd, and do not enter side streets that could put your life at risk."
Many external observers recommend restraint, arguing that US bombings could be counterproductive.
Danny Citrinowicz, a former senior analyst for Israeli defense intelligence on Iran, stated that the critical question is whether a deliberately limited action by Trump, designed to prevent escalation, "would actually affect the regime's ability to deal with protesters or whether, conversely, it could lead to the opposite result, given the Iranian opposition's expectations for deeper and more decisive American involvement."
Sanam Vakil from the Chatham House Middle East program estimated that the main impact of a US intervention would likely be to "strengthen elite unity and suppress fissures within the regime, at a time of increased vulnerability."
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, CEO of the Bourse and Bazaar organization, said that "the strongest argument against US intervention is the Trump administration's failure to guarantee peace in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon or political transitions in Syria and Venezuela. In each case, they made big promises but had neither the scope nor the strategy to deliver on them."
Former British Ambassador to Tehran, Rob Macaire, stated that US strikes "may not unfold as many expect," noting that the June attacks were not seen as weakening the state's power. At the same time, he admitted that Trump's statements mean "we will reach a point where there is a gap between rhetoric and reality." He called on policymakers to think more seriously about how a transition could be achieved.
"This is a government that came to power with an economic reform agenda, promising to improve the lives of ordinary people, based in part on the idea that there would be an agreement with the West and a lifting of sanctions. But this did not happen," he said.
The Iranian government, he added, "has no answers for inequality, structural challenges, the dominance of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) in the economy, the thriving smuggling due to sanctions, and how all this limits state resources.
It has no way to solve the problems that so enrage the protesters. And yet, there is no one else who has solutions – there is no one you can put on the throne, whether his name is Pahlavi or anyone else."
The Iranian government is already trying to convince citizens that it is saving the country from the chaos that, it claims, is instigated from abroad. In a televised interview on Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian repeatedly called for national unity, urging the country to move "hand-in-hand" against an external enemy encouraging troublemakers. He argued that 80% of protesters have legitimate demands but characterized those burning mosques and shops as troublemakers and terrorists.
Finally, he accused the US of "using the economy as a weapon to force us to bend" and appealed to the people, saying: "I ask the nation: remain and support us."
Iran: The Unpredictable Trump Amidst Calls for Help and Restraint
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