Is Venezuela The Latest Victim in the Geopolitical Carving of Power Between the 3 Superpowers, and Are Ukraine and Taiwan next?

The Greek Courier

By Yiannis Damellos

A new theory is emerging regarding the recent developments in Venezuela. Apparently, this situation is not an isolated case but rather part of a broader agreement among major powers that delineates spheres of influence: Venezuela for the U.S., Ukraine for Russia, and Taiwan for China. Notably, the silence from Russia and China following Maduro's capture indicates a tacit acceptance of this arrangement.

Let us check the supporting arguments, counterarguments, and nuances.

First, let us consider the new spheres of influence and coordination. In his article "Trump’s World and the New Three Emperors’ League" [1], Paul R. Pillar (ex-National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia) posits a world order dominated by an authoritarian triumvirate (U.S., Russia, China) respecting each other's spheres of influence through transactional deals [1]. Several sources [2][3] also suggest that these powers may strike unspoken deals, allowing each to pursue their ambitions without interference. This could be the reason why both China and Russia have been silent after Maduro's capture; if this is the case, maybe Ukraine and Taiwan are next.

Now, in terms of historical parallels, such an arrangement echoes historical three-headed arrangements like the League of the Three Emperors [1], or the Holy Alliance, in which the absolute monarchies in Austria, Prussia, and Russia found common cause after the Napoleonic Wars in quashing any moves toward democracy or self-determination for subordinate nationalities within their empires[1].

As Pillar also maintains, Trump's foreign policy is described as transactional, ad hoc, anecdotal, and episodic [1], suggesting a willingness to make deals that deviate from traditional U.S. foreign policy [1]. In this sense, "such a triumvirate would not be a formal alliance but rather a kind of global power sharing in which the big three would make transactional deals with each other, over the head of everyone else, while respecting each other’s spheres of influence".

If this scenario is true, Venezuela is Part of the U.S. Sphere as the U.S. has historically asserted its dominance in the Western Hemisphere through the Monroe Doctrine [4][5]. Trump's actions in Venezuela can be seen as a reassertion of this historical claim [4][6].

Additionally, Russia and China's silence can be interpreted as a calculated decision to prioritize their strategic interests (Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively) over direct intervention in Venezuela [7][8]. They may view Venezuela as less critical to their core interests than Ukraine or Taiwan are to theirs [9].

To achieve such a goal, however, all three must agree on a "Rules-Based Order". For example, the U.S. action in Venezuela, without UN authorization or Venezuelan consent, challenges the "rules-based order" [10] and signals to Russia and China that the U.S. is willing to act unilaterally in its perceived sphere of influence [10].

Then, we must consider several economic factors, as China has significant economic interests in Venezuela, particularly in oil [11][12]. However, these interests may not be significant enough to warrant a confrontation with the U.S., especially if maintaining stability in their sphere (Taiwan) is a higher priority [11].

Ultimately, geopolitically speaking, Russia and China have deepened their collaboration with Venezuela to counterbalance U.S. influence in the region [12][13]. Yet, this collaboration may have limits, especially if it risks direct conflict with the U.S [5].

Counterarguments

As Pillar notes, it's important to note that the "triumvirate" is not a formal alliance but rather a kind of global power-sharing arrangement [1], while there always exists a potential for friction, as clashes may still occur at the borders of these spheres of influence [1].

The U.S., Russia, and China have internal contradictions and may not always act in unison [14]. Yet, Trump never asked permission from Congress to abduct Maduro and attack Venezuela, because he thinks like his two "adversaries". He is an autocrat who envisioned a coup d etat once to overthrow a legitimate President. What kinds of contradictions are we talking about here? To the contrary, he's got lackies who totally agree with such a scheme.

Russia and China's silence could also be attributed to shock [6], a reassessment of their strategies, or a lack of immediate options. This theory will be tested soon, as nothing is over yet. The Bolivarian government is still in power, so they can still help if they are willing. If they don't, by the method of elimination, we should come to this conclusion.

While there's no definitive proof of a formal agreement, the circumstances surrounding Maduro's capture, coupled with the existing analysis of great power politics, strongly suggest that Venezuela's fate is intertwined with a broader understanding of spheres of influence among the U.S., Russia, and China.

REFERENCES

1. Trump's World and the New Three Emperors' League - The National Interest
2. Spheres of influence: How Putin, XI, and Trump have divided up the world - The Standard
3. Map Shows How Trump, Putin and Xi Could Carve Up the Globe - Newsweek
4. Trump ushers in a new era of rogue superpowers - New Statesman
5. Striking a Deal with Russia on Spheres of Influence - Cato Institute
6. Back to Yalta: A Great Power Carve Up 2.0 | Global Macro Monitor
7. A New Trend in Geopolitics? Great Power Coordination in the Expansion of Spheres of Influence - Australian Institute of International Affairs
8. Trump, Xi, and the false hope of a grand bargain - Brookings Institution
9. A Return to US and Russian Spheres of Influence? Don't Be Silly - CEPA
10. Trump's Attack in Venezuela Is Unlawful – and Latin America Will Fight Back - Zeteo
11. ️ Putin's and Xi's move: Why the battle for Venezuela's oil resources ️ is only just beginning and Europe must take Venezuela's crisis seriously as a strategic warning ️ - Xpert.Digital
12. China-Russia Launch Big Venezuela Action Against U.S. After Trump Military 'HIJACKS' Oil Vessel - YouTube
13. Venezuela's Maduro Signs Strategic Pact with Putin as U.S. Pressure Mounts · The Floridian
14. Spheres of influence: How Putin, XI, and Trump have divided up the world - TNX Africa