US Armada, EU Sanctions Ratchet Up Pressure on Iranian Regime

By John Ainger

Bloomberg

January 29, 2026, at 6:04 AM PST

The government in Tehran is being squeezed by the arrival of a US armada in the Middle East and a new set of EU sanctions.

To paraphrase German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the Iranian regime’s days may be numbered. Donald Trump’s “beautiful armada” — led by the USS Abraham Lincoln — has arrived in Middle Eastern waters, and the US president warned that the threat of military strikes is a real possibility unless Iran comes to the table to forge a nuclear deal.

Brent crude futures hit $70 a barrel for the first time since September today, with Trump’s belligerent tone injecting a risk premium into prices.

While not included in Trump’s latest military endeavor, the EU is ratcheting up economic pressure. Foreign affairs ministers meeting in Brussels today adopted additional sanctions following a brutal crackdown on protests that has killed thousands of civilians. They’re also poised to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, a terrorist organization.

This is a call “to return the capacity to Iran’s people to decide for, and by, themselves their own future,” Jean-Noël Barrot, France’s foreign minister, said ahead of the talks. “No one else can do it in their place.”

Jean-Noël Barrot.Photographer: Jeremy Suyker/Bloomberg

It comes just months after foreign ministers from France, Germany and the UK and the EU’s top envoy held talks with their counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, to try to avert a full-blown crisis.

Much of what happens in coming days will depend on how the IRGC responds, Patrick Sykes and Dina Esfandiary reported in a must-read analysis this month.

Decades of Western sanctions have supercharged the organization’s rise from a branch of the military to a gargantuan economic and political force. That means it has the most to lose if the system falls.

Our colleagues at Bloomberg Economics believe that strikes on Iran are “likely,” unless it disbands its atomic program — something it’s long resisted. For its part, Tehran has said it’s ready for dialog but warned it would respond with unprecedented force if pushed.