Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2026

Russia & Ukraine
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
July 23, 2026

Note: Today’s update includes static maps only of areas in which noteworthy changes or events occurred.

Toplines

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected the Russian narrative that the United States and Russia reached any kind of an agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine during the August 2025 Alaska Summit. Rubio stated following his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on July 23 that Russian “proposals” at the Anchorage Summit failed and that peace will only come through new “concepts and ideas,” which Rubio stated the United States is willing to support.[1] Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed on July 23 that Lavrov reaffirmed to Rubio Russia’s readiness for negotiations and commitment to US “proposals,” to which Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed at the Alaska Summit.[2] Russian officials routinely invoke the alleged “Anchorage agreements” to advance narratives about Russia’s willingness to negotiate, despite the lack of any public statements following the summit and US officials’ recent rejections of such Russian narratives.[3]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues reiterating his commitment to peace negotiations with the United States and Russia. Zelensky met with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner on July 22 and discussed peace negotiations efforts.[4] Zelensky reiterated on July 23 his intent to conduct trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian negotiations sometime in Fall 2026 but noted that if the timing was up to him, these talks would occur in July 2026.[5] Zelensky has repeatedly reiterated his commitment to peace negotiations and willingness to make meaningful compromises to end the war, despite Russian efforts to falsely paint Ukraine as the intransigent party in peace efforts.[6]

Key Takeaways: 

1. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected the Russian narrative that the United States and Russia reached any kind of agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine during the August 2025 Alaska Summit.
2. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues reiterating his commitment to peace negotiations with the United States and Russia.
3. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues reiterating his commitment to peace negotiations with the United States and Russia.
4. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on July 23.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces likely continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian energy and logistics assets on July 22 and 23. Ulyanovsk Oblast Governor Alexey Russkikh claimed on July 23 that Ukrainian drones struck a fuel and energy facility in Novospassky Raion, causing a fire.[7] Geolocated footage published on July 23 shows a fire at the NS-Oil refinery in Novospassky, Ulyanovsk Oblast (roughly 770 kilometers from the frontline).[8] Russian opposition outlet Astra reported on July 23, citing local residents, that Ukrainian forces struck a Wildberries (the closest Russian equivalent of Amazon) warehouse near Novaya Usman, Voronezh Oblast (a suburb of Voronezh City and roughly 190 kilometers from the frontline).[9] Geolocated point-of-view footage published on July 23 shows a fire at or near a Wildberries warehouse near Voronezh City, Voronezh Oblast.[10] Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Gusev acknowledged a Ukrainian strike on Voronezh Oblast on July 23 but claimed that Ukrainian forces struck civilian targets.[11] Astra reported on July 23 that Ukrainian forces struck the Subkhankulovo Linear Production and Dispatch Station in Subkhankulovo, Republic of Bashkortostan (roughly 1,200 kilometers from the frontline) on the morning of July 23 and published footage of a fire at the station.[12] The State Committee for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Bashkortostan claimed on July 23 that debris from a Ukrainian drone caused a fire at an industrial facility in Tuymazinsky Raion, Republic of Bashkortostan.[13]

Imagery and footage published on July 23 show the crash site of a Russian forces Su-57 fighter aircraft reportedly near Lutsino, Moscow Oblast.[14] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that the plane crashed due to a malfunction during takeoff.[15]

Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian naval vessels and oil infrastructure has reportedly forced Russia to restrict vessel movements, petroleum product production, and shipping at Krasnodar Krai ports. Reuters reported on July 22, citing three grain industry sources, that Russia has temporarily banned the movement of naval vessels in and out of Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai between midnight and 0500 local time due to the Ukrainian strikes.[16] The sources noted that authorities have only issued the order verbally, that the port is functioning normally outside of the midnight to 0500 window, and that the order has not affected grain shipments. The Kazakhstan Energy Ministry reported on July 23 that authorities have suspended loading operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil terminal at the port of Novorossiysk to ensure the safety of naval vessels and crews operating in the Black Sea, presumably referring to the threat of Ukrainian strikes against oil infrastructure and tankers.[17] The Kazakhstan Energy Ministry reported that it is also limiting oil production to prevent overstocking oil tank farms amid restrictions on the pipeline’s oil intake volumes. Ukrainian forces escalated their long-range strike campaign that aims to isolate occupied Crimea in early July 2026, and this campaign appears to be impacting regions of Russia near Crimea, such as Krasnodar Krai.[18] Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi reported that Ukrainian forces struck 196 Russian vessels, including oil tankers and bulk carriers, in the Black and Azov seas from July 6 to 22.[19]

Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis

Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in Sumy Oblast along the international border

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on July 22 and 23, but ISW does not assess that Russian forces advanced, as Ukrainian forces counterattacked.[20] A Russian milblogger claimed on July 22 that Russian forces advanced south of Myropillya (northeast of Sumy City) and west of Kondratovka, Kursk Oblast, in an area where ISW previously assessed Ukrainian forces advanced.[21] Russian milbloggers claimed on July 22 and 23 that Russian forces advanced south of Kindrativka, in northern Pysarivka (both north of Sumy City), and north of Myropilske (east of Sumy City).[22]

Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast

Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border to create a defensible buffer zone with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on July 22 and 23 but did not advance.[23]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velykyi Burluk direction on July 23 but did not advance. [24]Geolocated footage published on July 23 shows Russian forces reportedly striking a Ukrainian strongpoint east of Chorne (north of Velykyi Burluk).[25]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Oskil River

Russian objective: Cross the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk and Borova directions on July 22 and 23 but did not advance.[26]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast

Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction on July 22 and 23 but did not advance.[27] Geolocated footage published on July 22 shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions in northern Lyman, indicating that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in the area contrary to Russian claims.[28] A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Slovyansk direction reported on July 23 that Russian forces are concentrating experienced drone units in the brigade’s area of responsibility to strengthen Russian reconnaissance and strikes against Ukrainian positions.[29]




Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area on a prior date. Archival footage published on June 27 and geolocated on July 22 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Kostyantynivka and northeastern Novodmytrivka (just north of Kostyantynivka) after what ISW assesses were Russian infiltration missions.[30] The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kramatorsk direction reported on July 23 that Russian forces are avoiding direct small-arms fighting with Ukrainian forces and rely on infiltration tactics to get behind Ukrainian positions while striking Ukrainian positions with drones and artillery. The spokesperson reported that Russian forces are attempting to hide equipment in foliage while bringing it near the frontline.[31]



Russian sources continue their efforts to exaggerate Russian gains in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Kremlin newswire TASS posted footage on June 21 of Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions in Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka (northeast of Druzhkivka), but a geolocator identified that the footage was actually from Kostyantynivka and Kleban-Byk (south of Kostyantynivka and roughly 10 kilometers from the current frontline) and assessed that some of the footage was from around August 2025.[32]

Russian forces reportedly recently attempted a mechanized assault in the Dobropillya tactical area for the first time in over a year. A Ukrainian military source reported on July 22 that Russian forces attempted a mechanized assault from the Ocheretyne direction (in the Russian near-rear southeast of Dobropillya) with an unspecified number of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles for the first time in over a year.[33] The source reported that Ukrainian forces repelled the assault and destroyed 80 percent of the Russian vehicles before they reached the frontline. Another Ukrainian military source implied on July 22 that Russian forces recently conducted a mechanized assault, though it is unclear if the source was referring to the attempted assault in the Dobropillya direction.[34] ISW is unable to confirm that Russian forces conducted a recent mechanized assault in this area of the frontline. Ukrainian military units participating in combat operations typically publish footage of Russian mechanized assaults within 48 to 72 hours of the assaults, so footage supporting these preliminary Ukrainian reports may emerge in the coming days.

The Russian MoD claimed on July 23 that Russian forces struck a purported Ukrainian drone control center near Dobropillya with three FAB-500 glide bombs.[35] Geolocated footage published on July 23 shows Russian forces striking a Ukrainian command post in Dobropillya with an additional three FAB-500 glide bombs.[36]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction on July 22 and 23 but did not make confirmed advances.[37] A Russian milblogger claimed on July 23 that Russian forces advanced south of Serhiivka (west of Pokrovsk).[38] The Russian MoD claimed on July 22 that Russian forces seized Bilytske (north of Pokrovsk), but Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on July 22 that Russian forces failed to advance into Bilytske and that only a few isolated Russian servicemembers are in the settlement.[39]

Russian forces are using Starlink alternatives to support communications in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps Spokesperson Colonel Volodymyr Polevyi stated on July 23 that Russian forces are intensifying their assaults in the Pokrovsk direction using accumulated reserves and are gradually deploying the Russian-made satellite communications system Rassvet.[40] Polevyi reported that Russian forces have deployed units from the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies to the Pokrovsk direction and that the units are using Long Term Evolution (LTE) networks and mesh bridges to support drone activity.

Ukrainian forces continued their intermediate-strike campaign against Russian logistics in the Pokrovsk direction. The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reactions Corps reported on July 23 that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian trucks near Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk and roughly 22 kilometers from the frontline) and along the M-30 Selydove-Pokrovsk highway.[41] The corps reported that Ukrainian forces also struck an airfield that Russian forces used to launch drones against Ukraine.

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction on July 22 and 23 but did not advance as Ukrainian forces counterattacked.[42] A Russian milblogger claimed on July 22 that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in the Novopavlivka direction using small groups, pickup trucks, and armored vehicles.[43]

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction on July 22 and 23 but did not advance as Ukrainian forces counterattacked.[44] A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Oleksandrivka direction reported on July 23 that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking and striking Russian logistics in this direction.[45] The brigade reported that Russian forces are using drones less intensely in the Oleksandrivka direction because of Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) and that Russian forces are attempting to overcome Ukrainian EW, including by frequency-hopping and using artificial intelligence (AI)-guided drones.

Ukrainian forces continued mid-range strikes against Russian logistics assets in occupied Donetsk Oblast. Geolocated footage published on July 22 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian trucks along the H-15 highway near occupied Marinka (roughly 50 kilometers from the frontline).[46] Geolocated footage published on July 21 shows a burning fuel truck in Mariupol (110 kilometers from the frontline).[47]

Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis

Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 22 and 23 but did not advance.[48]

Russian special services are reportedly recruiting Zaporizhzhia City residents to commit sabotage and arson. The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported on July 23 that it recorded a surge in arson attacks on administrative and civil buildings in Zaporizhzhia City.[49] The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian special services are recruiting Zaporizhzhia City residents to commit sabotage and arson using social media and online dating sites.

Geolocated footage published on July 22 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian military vehicle south of Myrne (roughly five kilometers from the frontline).[50]

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported ground activity in the Kherson direction on July 23.

Ukrainian forces continued their intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Kherson Oblast. Geolocated footage published on July 22 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian military trucks along the M-18 Melitopol-Chonhar highway near occupied Chonhar (roughly 115 kilometers from the frontline).[51]

Occupied Kherson Oblast continues to experience power outages. The Kherson Oblast occupation administration claimed on July 23 that 14 raions of occupied Kherson Oblast are without power due to an unspecified technical failure in the power grid.[52]

Ukrainian forces reportedly continued drone strikes against energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea overnight on July 22 to 23. A local Crimea-based Telegram source claimed that there were explosions near electrical substations near occupied Feodosia, Prymorske, Haspara, Hurzuf (all about 235 to 260 kilometers from the frontline on Crimea’s southern coast), and the Balaklava Thermal Power Plant in occupied Sevastopol (about 240 kilometers from the frontline).[53] Crimean occupation energy operator Krymenergo reported that Ukrainian strikes caused power outages and prompted energy restrictions across occupied Crimea and that the situation is most difficult in northwestern, eastern, and southern Crimea.[54] Crimean occupation authorities claimed that Ukrainian forces targeted Crimea with drones overnight.[55] Ukrainian forces are increasingly targeting electrical substations in occupied Crimea, including overnight on July 21 to 22.[56]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign

Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the front line

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of July 22 to 23. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and five Kh-59/69 guided missiles from occupied Crimea and 168 Shahed-type strike drones and Gerbera-, Italmas-, and Parodiya-type decoy drones from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Primorsk-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; occupied Donetsk City; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea.[57] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 154 drones, that seven drones struck nine locations, and that drone and missile fragments fell on four locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck residential, fuel, electrical, and logistics infrastructure in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[58] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces hit a private enterprise in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killing at least four and injuring at least 27.[59]

Ukrainian Agrarian Policy Minister Taras Vysotskyi stated on July 23 that no commercial shipping vessels entered Ukrainian ports on July 22 after Ukrainian shipowners independently suspended port calls due to heightened risks of Russian strikes.[60]

Significant Activity in Belarus

Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a decree for the Belarusian annual fall conscription cycle on July 23. Lukashenko signed a decree on July 23 to conscript Belarusian reservists into military service between September and November 2026.[61] This activity is consistent with the usual Belarusian spring conscription cycle and is not an inflection in Belarusian military activity.[62]