Three out of four Americans point the finger at Donald Trump for a problem that hits their wallets directly. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 30 through October 5 found that 78% of Americans blame Trump's policies for rising prices that are outpacing their earnings. Even among Republicans, 57% said their costs were growing faster than their paychecks. The president who promised to bring prices down has reached the final stretch before the November 3 midterms, facing a revolt over the cost of living—and the discontent extends well beyond his political opponents.
The numbers behind that anger are not abstract economic indicators. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, bringing annual inflation to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August. Gasoline prices surged as his decision to start the war with Iran has rattled energy markets, while Trump's import tariffs added costs to goods entering the United States. The administration's decisions have collided with the promise that defined Trump's economic campaign: cheaper living, stronger purchasing power and relief for American families. Instead, households are watching price increases consume the gains in their paychecks.
What we know so far:
- The Iran war has cost the average U.S. household around $2,000, including approximately $1,100 in higher energy expenses, economists estimate, according to AP.
- Gasoline prices rose 45% and diesel 68% from prewar levels.
- September's annual consumer inflation rate rose to 3.7%, while gasoline jumped 9.1% in one month. The tariff and energy shocks are adding pressure to household budgets.
- Brent crude reached a five-month high around $110. The International Energy Agency warns that depleted inventories, disrupted exports and tight diesel supplies could keep markets under pressure well into 2027.
For whom the bell tolls?
The price of Trump's Iran war is measured not only in missiles fired, aircraft destroyed and lives lost, but in the social needs that billions of dollars could have addressed instead. By September, the Pentagon put the cost of the war with Iran at $43.6 billion, while Trump's administration sought a record $1.5 trillion military budget for 2027. For a voter, that money represents choices: investments in affordable housing, healthcare, schools, nutrition assistance and energy relief, or an expanding cycle of military destruction and economic disruption. And as the administration pursues military expansion, its own tax-and-spending law has helped push millions of Americans off food assistance: Reuters reported that more than 4.7 million people had lost SNAP benefits since the law took effect, according to federal data through March. Families struggling to put food on the table are being asked to absorb higher fuel and grocery costs while Washington pours tens of billions into war. The question Americans voters are asking before the Midterms is what its government chooses to fund — and who is left to pay the price.
From War to Oil to PollsOil is where the consequences become impossible to ignore. On October 21, Brent crude reached approximately $110 a barrel, a five-month high, as the conflict and disruption around the Persian Gulf continued to unsettle markets. Expensive oil does not stop at the gas station. It raises the cost of trucking, shipping, farm production, heating, packaging, and manufacturing. Those costs travel through supply chains until they reach supermarket shelves and household bills. American consumers do not need to follow the intricacies of Middle Eastern diplomacy to feel the consequences; they encounter them every time they fill a tank or pay for groceries.
Tariffs increase the cost of living
Trump's tariffs add another burden. Import taxes are collected at the border, but American businesses importing foreign goods face the initial bill, with some of the cost passed on to consumers and other businesses. Tariffs can also invite retaliation, disrupt established supply chains and force companies to reconsider investment and sourcing decisions. The result is uncertainty layered on top of an energy shock: businesses must navigate changing trade rules while confronting higher transportation and production costs. This is not a theoretical debate about protectionism, but a question of who ultimately pays for the administration's choices — and how much more families can absorb.
The American Dream must be postponed
The pressure is reaching housing as well. Reuters reported on October 21 that U.S. 30-year mortgage rates had climbed to around 7.5%, making homeownership more expensive just as higher energy and transportation costs squeeze household budgets. Interest rates reflect several forces, not oil prices alone, but renewed inflationary pressure complicates the prospect of cheaper borrowing. A family can be hit at the gas pump, at the supermarket and again when it tries to buy a home. The American dream becomes more expensive while the administration insists its economic programme is delivering relief.
The damage extends beyond America's borders. Trump's trade confrontations have strained relations with Canada, Mexico and Europe, partners whose economies are closely linked to the United States. Trade barriers and policy uncertainty complicate decisions by companies on both sides of the Atlantic and Pacific. Meanwhile, Russia's energy revenues and China's position in global manufacturing and trade show the real winners of Washington's choice to unsettle alliances and markets. These are not identical cases, and the benefits to America's rivals vary by sector and circumstance. But a United States that makes economic cooperation with its own partners more difficult risks weakening the very relationships that give it leverage over its competitors.
And what happens if the oil crisis deepens? Nobody can dismiss the danger of another sharp increase if conflict disrupts supplies and shipping routes again. Even when oil flows recover, elevated transport costs, damaged infrastructure and uncertainty can keep prices high. The longer the disruption lasts, the harder it becomes for businesses and households to plan. Every additional shock threatens to spread through the economy, from fuel and freight to food and the cost of credit. The administration has made decisions with consequences that reach far beyond the battlefield, and American consumers are left to absorb much of the economic strain.
The midterms are approaching, and the Reuters/Ipsos poll delivers a verdict on the issue voters feel most directly: their money is not going as far as it should. Trump made lower prices a central promise. Now 78% blame his policies for costs rising faster than earnings, including a majority of his own Republican respondents. The White House can defend its tariffs, its military strategy and its economic record, but it cannot make the household arithmetic disappear. When war pushes up energy costs, tariffs burden trade and paychecks fail to keep pace, the political question is unavoidable: how much more are American families expected to pay for Trump's decisions?
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