By Yiannis Damellos and Mars Strangelove Jr.
October 26, 2026
Is Texas Turning Blue? Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024. Now, Democrats are challenging Republicans in statewide races as voters confront rising costs, a controversial war and the consequences of tariff policy.
For more than a century, Texas was predominantly Democratic territory in presidential elections. From 1872 through 1976, the state voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in all but four elections: 1928, when Republican Herbert Hoover defeated Al Smith; 1952 and 1956, when Dwight D. Eisenhower carried Texas; and 1972, when Richard Nixon won the state in a national landslide. Jimmy Carter reclaimed Texas for the Democrats in 1976. Then the political map changed.
The Republican takeover was not instantaneous, but it became decisive at the presidential level in 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated Carter in Texas. Since then, every Republican presidential nominee has carried the state. What had once been a Democratic stronghold became one of the foundations of Republican national power.
Republicans built their dominance around conservative voters, evangelical Christians, rural communities, business interests and growing suburban support. Over time, the party also benefited from Democratic weakness and the realignment of white conservative voters across the South. Texas became synonymous with Republican power, producing figures such as George W. Bush, Rick Perry, Greg Abbott and Ted Cruz.
But political dominance can breed complacency. And the Republican Party now faces a question it has long been able to avoid: what happens when voters who helped keep it in power begin to question what they are getting in return?
The numbers Republicans cannot ignore
Donald Trump won Texas in 2024 by nearly 14 percentage points. Yet the latest polling for the November 3, 2026 midterms shows Democrats competing in two of the state's most important statewide races.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll conducted September 25–October 5 among 861 likely voters put Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, 50% to 47%. In the governor's race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa led incumbent Greg Abbott, 49% to 48%. Both results were within the poll's margin of error of 3.34 percentage points, meaning neither constituted a statistically conclusive lead.
A separate Marist poll, conducted October 8–11, showed Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 45% among likely voters, while Abbott led Hinojosa 49% to 45%. The two surveys differ, but both describe closely contested races rather than the comfortable Republican margins that many Texans have come to expect.
This suggests the state's Republican advantage is being tested in an election year when the president's party faces national headwinds.
The Trump factor—and the price of living under his policies
Trump campaigned on economic relief, lower prices and a rejection of costly foreign entanglements. But tariffs have created additional costs for importers and businesses, some of which can be passed on to consumers. Meanwhile, the war involving Iran has disrupted energy markets and put renewed pressure on fuel prices.
The effects are not identical for every household or business. Texas's energy sector can benefit from higher oil prices, while consumers and businesses that depend on affordable fuel can be hurt. At the end of the day, the administration's economic promises are being judged against the cost of everyday life, not merely its explanations for why prices have risen.
Marist's October Texas survey found that 43% of likely voters said their family finances had worsened over the previous year. Only 18% said they had improved, while 43% reported little change. Trump's approval rating among likely voters stood at 46%, with 54% disapproving.
These findings show that the administration is campaigning amid widespread financial dissatisfaction and a negative approval rating in a state that Trump carried comfortably two years ago.
The Republican problem is bigger than one candidate
Paxton and Abbott are different candidates running different campaigns. Their polling numbers should not be treated as interchangeable, and the governor's race remains competitive rather than conclusively Democratic.
But the Senate race exposes a particular vulnerability. In the University of Texas survey, Talarico led Paxton among independent likely voters by 69% to 11%. The poll also found that Talarico had an advantage on several issues, including the cost of living, healthcare and political corruption. Paxton retained advantages on immigration and border security, public safety and national security.
The findings suggest that some voters are weighing the Republican candidates against concerns that extend beyond traditional partisan loyalties. They also show why the result cannot be reduced to a simple national referendum: immigration and border security remain important Republican strengths, while the Democrats' prospects depend on whether their support translates into turnout.
Is the old Texas returning?
There is an irony in the state's political history. Texas was once a Democratic stronghold, then became a Republican pillar as the South realigned. Today, Democrats are trying to assemble a new coalition from urban voters, suburban residents, younger Texans, women and voters dissatisfied with the national Republican leadership.
The latest polls offer evidence of competitiveness, not proof of a permanent realignment. Texas has continued to vote Republican for president since 1980, and Republicans retain substantial strengths, especially in rural areas. A handful of close polls cannot erase that history.
Still, the direction of the conversation has changed. Democrats are no longer discussing Texas only as a distant long-term opportunity. They are contesting statewide races in 2026, while the president's approval rating and voters' assessments of their household finances create a difficult backdrop for Republicans.
The midterms will test whether this is a temporary backlash or the beginning of a deeper change. If Democrats make substantial gains, the result will raise questions about how much Trump's policies, economic dissatisfaction and voter enthusiasm contributed. If Republicans hold their ground, the state will remain Republican-controlled—but the closeness of the campaign will still demonstrate that its political future is being contested.
Texas has changed political identities before. The question now is whether the Republican coalition that dominated the state for decades can maintain that dominance under the pressure of its own governing record.
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