The Fool Who Came In From the Cold

Putin Throws Trump a Bone. 

Now Zelenskyy Is Being Told to Pay for It

October 20, 2026

Yiannis Damellos and Mars Strangelove Jr. on Duty

The Kremlin welcomes American economic concessions, Trump demands Ukrainian compromise, and Europe is still fighting for a place at the table. Who exactly is this peace deal designed to protect?

Vladimir Putin has agreed in principle to resume three-way negotiations with the United States and Ukraine after November 10, according to Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov. The announcement followed a three-hour meeting in St. Petersburg between Putin and Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff, with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner participating by video link. Yet the diplomatic choreography raises an uncomfortable question: is Washington negotiating an end to the war, or gradually preparing Kyiv to accept Moscow's terms?

Consider what has happened in recent days. The Trump administration has relaxed sanctions restrictions to facilitate Russian diesel exports, while Trump has pressed Zelenskyy to reach an agreement with Putin. At the St. Petersburg meeting, Witkoff thanked the Russian president for agreeing to supply diesel, and the Kremlin reported discussions about large-scale economic cooperation between the two countries. Putin received a tangible economic opening and another opportunity to engage Washington. What Ukraine has received is renewed pressure to compromise.

The Kremlin also appears determined to shape the diplomatic architecture itself. Only days ago, Moscow was discussing the possibility of a meeting between the Russian, American and Chinese leaders at an economic summit in China. Ukraine was not part of that proposed configuration, nor was the European Union. Such a gathering would place three major powers at the centre of the discussion while leaving the country invaded by Russia and the European governments financing and supporting its defence outside the room. The Kremlin's preferred format is revealing, even if the proposed leaders' meeting remains distinct from the newly announced negotiations involving Kyiv.

And where is Europe? Witkoff met Zelenskyy and European leaders in Oslo before travelling to Russia, but Ushakov dismissed the resulting proposals as containing little of real value. The EU remains without a clearly defined seat at the centre of the negotiations, despite the enormous security, economic and political consequences any settlement would have for the continent. European leaders cannot simply assume that consultations on the margins will give them influence over an agreement negotiated principally in Washington and Moscow.

Meanwhile, the battlefield offers a brutal reminder of what is at stake. Russian attacks on Wednesday killed three people and wounded 12 in Kyiv, according to the city's military administration. Two more people were reported killed in a drone attack near Kharkiv. While diplomats discuss economic opportunities and future security arrangements, Ukrainian civilians continue to pay the price of Russia's invasion. Zelenskyy has called for the fighting to be frozen as a minimum step toward ending the war.

Trump's public language is equally revealing. At the White House, he complained that the United States had given Ukraine a great deal and received nothing in return except grief, death and monetary losses. He warned that failure to reach a deal would be very bad. This is the language of a president who is increasingly framing support for an invaded ally as a transaction—and who risks treating the victim's refusal to surrender territory or security as the obstacle to peace. Whether Trump intends to force major concessions remains to be seen. But the pressure on Zelenskyy is unmistakable.

Here lies the danger. Putin can negotiate with Washington, offer economic cooperation and seek to restore commercial ties while retaining the military pressure that gives him leverage. Zelenskyy, by contrast, must defend his country's territory, protect its population and seek credible security guarantees while depending heavily on the goodwill of an American president whose priorities are increasingly difficult to predict. If Washington rewards Moscow with economic relief while demanding concessions from Kyiv, the negotiating balance shifts in Russia's favour before a settlement has even been reached.

The Crooked Club may call this diplomacy, but a durable peace cannot be built by deciding Ukraine's future over Ukraine's head—or by sidelining Europe while asking Europeans to live with the consequences. Zelenskyy must not be left alone to negotiate under pressure from two presidents whose countries possess vastly greater resources than his own. The test of this process is not whether Trump and Putin can strike a deal. It is whether any agreement secures Ukraine's sovereignty, provides enforceable guarantees against another invasion and gives Europe a meaningful role in its own security. A deal that silences the guns today only to prepare the next war tomorrow is not peace. It is capitulation dressed up as diplomacy.