Like father, Like Son: Lula leads Jair's son, Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil election poll

July 24, 2026

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva continues to hold a lead over opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, according to a new Datafolha poll released on Friday, ahead of Brazil's presidential election scheduled for October.

The poll indicates that in a potential runoff, Lula would defeat Jair Bolsonaro's son by 48% to 43%. A previous survey conducted in June showed Lula leading by a narrower margin of 47% to 43%.

In a first-round voting scenario, Lula is projected to secure 40% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro at 32%. Other candidates include Ronaldo Caiado at 4%, and both Romeu Zema and Renan Santos at 3% each.

In Brazil, if no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes, the top two contenders will proceed to a second-round vote.

The poll was conducted amidst a rift between Senator Bolsonaro and his stepmother, former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro. She accused him in June of "disrespecting" her by criticizing her involvement in party matters, while he publicly apologized to her this week.

The poll was also taken following the recent announcement by the United States of a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods, citing unfair trade practices—a claim that Lula's administration disputes.

Datafolha surveyed 2,004 individuals between July 22 and 23. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction.