Brazil's Election Is Not Over, But If You Care For Spoilers, Follow the Money

By Mars Strangelove Jr. and Yiannis Damellos

October 4, 2026

Brazil has finished the first round of its presidential election, but the political story has only become more interesting. Flávio Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03% of the valid vote, while President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva received 45.16%. Neither reached the required majority, so the two will face each other again on Oct. 25. Yet, there is another number worth watching: the votes that did not go to either of them. Brazil had 12 registered presidential candidacies. Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema were among the candidates outside the runoff, and their supporters now represent a substantial political constituency.

So here is the question that comes to my mind: who has already approached them or is going to approach them now — and what have they offered or will they offer to them? Naturally, a candidate can negotiate over policies, cabinet positions, congressional cooperation, or electoral alliances. Those are normal parts of democratic politics. But money, contracts, favors or undisclosed arrangements are another matter.

And there is already enough clues in the public record to justify looking closely at the money. Before the election, Folha reported that Ronaldo Caiado had raised about 6.6 million reais, with major contributions from businessmen including Carlos Eduardo Ferraz de Mattos Barroso, Ricardo Fleury Cavalcanti de Albuquerque Lacerda and João Carlos Paes Mendonça. Romeu Zema's campaign had raised about 3.4 million reais, while Augusto Cury had raised roughly 317,000 reais, most of it from his own pocket.

And Brazil's political class is already under scrutiny over the Banco Master affair. Flávio Bolsonaro himself is under investigation for alleged corruption and money laundering connected to the case; naturally, he denies wrongdoing. Federal police have also investigated alleged links between the banker Daniel Vorcaro and figures across the political establishment. Those are investigations and allegations, not convictions, but they demonstrate why following financial connections in the runoff is quite significant.

There is another reason to watch the outsiders. Their speeches are already showing where they stand. Zema has declared himself opposed to the Workers' Party, while Cury has said he will not endorse either Bolsonaro or Lula. The PSD, whose presidential candidate was Caiado, has released its members to make their own choices.

Brazil's runoff has two names on the ballot. But politically, there are many more people in the room. It will be interesting to see if Trump’s extensive network can sway their interests and affect their decisions, as this may play a crucial role in one of the most significant political battles in the Southern Hemisphere.