Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Talarico Ahead In Texas Senate Race In 2 New Polls (Updated Daily)

By Sara Dorn, Forbes Staff. 

Sara Dorn is a Forbes news reporter who covers politics.

Topline

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton in two new polls released Wednesday, while Democrat Troy Jackson leads GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine—the latest surveys to show Democrats with an advantage in the midterms.

Key Facts

• Texas: Talarico leads Paxton 47% to 45% in a Marist poll and 50% to 47% in a University of Texas poll (updated Oct. 14).
• Maine: Democratic candidate Troy Jackson is leading in the race against incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49% to 47%, a new Suffolk University poll (updated Oct.14).
• North Carolina: In the race moved from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat,” Cooper is leading Whatley 54% to 40%, with 5% undecided, in a WRAL/WSOC poll (updated Oct. 13).
• Minnesota: Flanagan is ahead of former NFL reporter Tafoya 47% to 43%, with 9% undecided, in a Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota poll (updated Oct. 12).
• Iowa: Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek 47% to 45% in the latest Emerson College survey (updated Oct. 9).
• Ohio: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, leads incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 43% in the latest CNN poll (updated Oct. 8).
• New Hampshire: In the race, Cook moved from toss-up to “lean Democrat,” Democratic candidate Rep. Chris Pappas is leading his Republican opponent, former Sen. John Sununu, 51% to 44%, according to a St. Anselm College poll, although 4% of respondents said they were unsure or voting for a third candidate (updated Oct. 7).
• Kansas: In the race Cook shifted from “lean Republican" to toss up, Sen. Roger Marshall leads Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor at the largest United Methodist church in the country, 47% to 46%, in the latest New York Times/Siena poll (updated Oct. 7).
• Alaska: Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola is ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 50% to 43% among voters 50 and older a new New York Times/Siena poll (updated Oct. 3).
• Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is ahead of Republican Rep. Mike Rogers 50% to 49% in the latest Fox News poll (updated Oct. 2).
• Florida: Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon is tied with Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, both with 45% and 7% of voters are undecided in the latest survey from St. Pete Polls and FloridaPolitics.com (updated Sept. 18).

Which Party Will Win The House?

Multiple polls in recent weeks show Democrats vaulting ahead. In a New York Times/Siena poll released Sept. 15, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate running in their district, 43% said they would vote for the Republican and 6% said they didn’t know or refused to answer the question. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows Democrats are ahead by 8.6 points as of Tuesday, 49.7% to 41.1%, up from 6.7 points, 48.3% to 41.6%, as of Sept. 1. Kalshi betting odds show Democrats have a 90.1% chance of winning the House as of Tuesday.

Big Number

38%. That’s Trump’s approval rating in the Silver Bulletin polling average, amid a string of surveys in recent months showing his approval rating at record lows amid growing fatigue with the Iran war and its impact on the economy. While Trump’s rating is low compared to most modern presidents at this point in their terms, the president’s party historically performs poorly in midterm elections, due to a combination of factors including low turnout in a non-presidential election year and motivation among voters who view the midterms as a referendum on the president’s agenda.

Key Background

Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The party won back control in 2024, flipping West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana, after four years in the minority. A split Congress or one that’s fully in Democrats’ control could significantly hamstring Trump’s agenda, though he’s circumvented Congress to enact some of his most controversial priorities, including mass immigration raids, the Iran war and reconstruction of the Capitol and surrounding areas. Democrats are also gearing up to launch numerous investigations into Trump if they regain control of one or both chambers, with probes set to focus on whether he has used the presidency to enrich himself personally.